By Paul R. La Monica
The market for initial public offerings has perked up this year after a sluggish 2024. Some 191 companies came public through mid-November, a 48% increase over the same period last year, according to IPO research firm Renaissance Capital. Blockbuster IPOs from the tech companies CoreWeave, Circle Internet Group, and Figma, all of which raised more than $1 billion via stock sales, led the way.
Still, investors can't help but wonder how much better the market could have been. The IPO market was put on hold twice in 2025, going into dark mode in the spring after President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement rattled investors, and again in the fall following the federal government's shutdown. If the broader stock market continues to climb, however, the window for new stock issues is likely to be wide open again in 2026.
Avery Marquez, director of investment strategies at Renaissance, has followed the IPO market's ups and downs since joining the Stamford, Conn.--based firm in 2019. Tutored by Renaissance co-founder Kathleen Smith, who now serves as chairman, and president and CEO William Smith, her husband, Marquez works closely with the firm's executives and research team, which publishes reports about companies coming public and the broader IPO market.
Renaissance also manages two exchange-traded funds, Renaissance IPO and Renaissance International IPO, that track IPO indexes developed by the firm in conjunction with FTSE Russell. The ETFs invest in companies that have gone public in the past three years, and rebalance every quarter.
Barron's recently spoke with Marquez about the outlook for IPOs in 2026, some potentially high-profile deals, and the best time to buy newly issued stock. An edited version of the conversation follows.
Barron's : The longest-ever government shutdown has ended and Washington is getting back to business. Will the market for initial public offerings pick up? And if so, what will 2026 bring?
Avery Marquez: There was a long-awaited IPO revival earlier this year, but the momentum cooled during the shutdown. Also, there are concerns about tariff issues involving China, and fragility in the artificial-intelligence trade. But market conditions are still strong.
Assuming there is no significant hit to stocks, we expect a pickup in IPOs early in 2026.
We may get the usual seasonal slowdown between Thanksgiving and Christmas, so there may not be a huge restart. But come January, we expect a repeat of what we saw in May: a few deals that retest the waters, before a material increase in issuance.
Which companies that could go public in the next few months have the potential to attract a lot of investor interest?
Regulatory filings have slowed significantly but we have a few names. Medical and surgical supplies maker Medline could be a $5 billion offering, which would make it one of the largest since Rivian came public in 2021. It is possible the company will come public before year end.
We're also watching Wealthfront, the fintech and robo advisory firm, which filed back in September; Bitgo, in the crypto space; Lendbuzz, a fintech company; and Once Upon a Farm, which sells baby food and would be a rare consumer IPO.
Are there other private companies that could have big IPOs in 2026?
Canva is a design-software company, a peer of Figma. It has taken steps toward an IPO but hasn't filed officially yet.
In general, we are expecting more venture-capital-funded tech, tech-adjacent businesses, and fintech companies to come public next year. And AI will be a big new-issue theme for the next year or two, and potentially beyond that.
The AI firm Databricks is a perennial IPO candidate. Genesys Cloud, an AI-powered software company specializing in customer call-center technology, and Kraken in crypto, are also on our radar. Chobani, the Greek yogurt company, planned to go public a few years ago and withdrew its offering. It might be coming back.
There have been reports that OpenAI may be looking to go public at a $1 trillion valuation. Would the market be receptive at that price?
We aren't seeing signs of a bubble yet in the IPO market. But a deal of that size would throw that into question. A valuation of $1 trillion or more would be a little less than the Saudi Aramco deal, the largest IPO ever. It would be the first $1 trillion deal in the U.S.
You have to ask whether investors would be willing to pay that price tag for OpenAI right now. Even with all the enthusiasm around ChatGPT and AI, it isn't clear. You can't really answer the question until you see the IPO prospectus and get a better feel for the business and financials.
Many investors focus on how a new issue performs on the first day of trading, judging it a success or failure based on its first-day "pop." Is that fair?
To the contrary, it is a disservice. There are numerous examples of companies that go public and don't wow even in the first six months. But eventually they show they are executing on their plan, and that's when they start to take off. CoreWeave is a great example. Reddit is another. It did OK at first, and then took off. Looking back further, Facebook [now Meta Platforms] was an underwhelming performer in its first year as a public company.
Those first-day moves get a lot of news coverage and investor attention. Also, if a stock that has outperformed on its first day of trading can't maintain its gains, it may get too much negative coverage.
Should investors try to buy IPOs on the first day of trading, or later?
The average retail investor is better off waiting in most cases, and getting in after the first day's potential pop. Sometimes it makes sense to wait until the company reports earnings for the first time as a public company. Most IPOs have a six-month lockup period for insiders' shares. When the insiders eventually sell, that can put pressure on the stock and create an attractive entry point.
Do you see any bargains among companies that came public in recent years and saw their stocks falter?
Looking back at the past couple of years of IPOs, the bargains share a mix of traits -- growth alongside a valuation reset, and profitability or steps toward profitability.
Quite a few are less flashy names, such as Flowco Holdings, in oil-well services; Infinity Natural Resources, an independent energy exploration and production company; LandBridge, which owns and manages land in energy-producing areas; and Jefferson Capital [which purchases and manages receivables].
There are a few more high-profile recent issuers that have these characteristics, such as eToro Group [which operates a trading platform] and Chime Financial, a fintech company. They have sold off quite a bit from their IPO prices, but have demonstrated growth, profitability, and some improvement in recent performance.
More broadly, areas such as industrials, consumer, and traditional finance may have some bargains. They have been hit harder by tariff and interest-rate uncertainty, and are now poised to benefit from perceived stability after the end of the government shutdown.
Your firm's IPO ETF has been relatively flat this year while the International IPO ETF is shooting the lights out, with a gain of nearly 40%. Why have domestic IPOs lagged behind, and why has the international fund done so well?
The Renaissance IPO ETFs hold the most-liquid new stocks in the U.S. and internationally. Both are transparent, rules-based ETFs that seek to track the performance of the Renaissance IPO Index and the Renaissance International IPO Index, respectively.
There is no element of active stock-picking in either the indexes or the ETFs. Changes are made on a quarterly basis, and the funds don't receive IPO allocations. Some recent additions include CoreWeave, Circle, Figma, Chime, and Caris Life Sciences in the U.S., and Kioxia Holdings, CATL [ Contemporary Amperex Technology], InnoScience, and Renk Group in the international fund.
As for performance, the U.S. IPO ETF has experienced a lot of volatility this year, in line with -- although slightly more amplified than -- broader domestic markets, due to tariffs and rate expectations. The fund is also tech-leaning, so trends in tech and AI have influenced trading, first with strong tailwinds and now some headwinds. Two of the top 10 holdings, Arm Holdings and Astera Labs, have been drivers on both sides at different points.
The International IPO ETF has a more mixed record. Performance has turned around in a big way so far this year, driven by the ETF's concentration in Hong Kong stocks, which have generally done well in 2025. While international markets can still be influenced by U.S. affairs, they have been much less affected by the volatility in U.S. markets.
Thank you, Avery.
Write to Paul R. La Monica at paul.lamonica@barrons.com
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November 14, 2025 01:00 ET (06:00 GMT)
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