The future of Europe’s green steel market: challenges and catalysts

Fastmarkets11-14

The European green steel market is central to achieving the region’s climate objectives. Producing 130 million tonnes of crude steel in 2024i, the sector accounts for 5-6% of total EU emissionsii. The...

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The...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-future-of-europes-green-steel-market-challenges-and-catalysts/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fastmarkets_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The future of Europe’s green steel market: challenges and catalysts</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe future of Europe’s green steel market: challenges and catalysts\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-14 13:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-future-of-europes-green-steel-market-challenges-and-catalysts/><strong>Fastmarkets</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The European green steel market is central to achieving the region’s climate objectives. Producing 130 million tonnes of crude steel in 2024i, the sector accounts for 5-6% of total EU emissionsii. The...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-future-of-europes-green-steel-market-challenges-and-catalysts/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"DRI","symbol_name":"达登饭店","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-future-of-europes-green-steel-market-challenges-and-catalysts/","article_id":"2583508178","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"fastmarkets_highlight","url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-future-of-europes-green-steel-market-challenges-and-catalysts/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2583508178","pubTimestamp":1763096400,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"fastmarkets_highlight","name":"Fastmarkets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The European green steel market, crucial for meeting the EU’s climate goals, faces challenges from high input costs, economic pressures, and trade uncertainties, while transitioning to low-carbon production methods like hydrogen-based steelmaking offers a pathway to near-zero emissions.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fastmarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"DRI":"达登饭店","GPP":"Green Plains Partners LP","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4082":"医疗保健设备","LU0154245673.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US MID CAP \"C\" (USD) INC","EAF":"Graftech International Ltd.","BK4144":"石油与天然气的储存和运输","LU0154245756.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US MID CAP \"C\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4096":"电气部件与设备","HRC":"希尔罗控股","BK4209":"餐馆","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4590":"PTP","BK4588":"碎股"},"translate_title":"欧洲绿色钢铁市场的未来：挑战与催化剂","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DRI":1,"GPP":1,"EAF":1,"HRC":1},"content_text":"The European green steel market is central to achieving the region’s climate objectives. Producing 130 million tonnes of crude steel in 2024i, the sector accounts for 5-6% of total EU emissionsii. The EU has committed to an economy-wide emissions reduction of 55% by 2035, placing increasing pressure on steelmakers to decarbonize. \nDespite the presence of an established green steel market, 2025 proved a challenging year. A combination of adverse economic conditions, weaker industrial output, and ongoing trade uncertainty led traded volumes to stagnate at under 200,000 tonnes for flat-rolled green steel, while premiums have declined by 10% since the start of the year, according to Fastmarkets’ assessments. \nLooking ahead, multiple factors are set to influence the market, many of which remain highly uncertain. These include Europe’s macroeconomic outlook, as well as the policy and technology shifts underpinning the region’s climate agenda and its broader industrial and trade strategy.  \nThrough this article we explore these uncertainties, examining the main headwinds and tailwinds shaping the future of Europe’s green steel market. \nHeadwinds \nHigh input costs for low-carbon steel production  \nImpact channel: supply  \nTransitioning production from the Blast Furnace – Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) route to the Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) route is the key lever for decarbonising steel production in Europe.  \nSeveral lower-emission steelmaking routes using EAFs exist, depending on the input mix. For hot rolled coil (HRC) production, high-quality scrap can be blended with pig iron (EAF-PIG-IRON) or further decarbonised using Direct Reduced Iron (DRI). DRI itself can be produced with natural gas (EAF-NG-DRI) or hydrogen (EAF-H2-DRI), the latter offering a pathway to near-zero emissions steel when made from renewable electricity. \nHowever, all these routes are highly electricity-intensive, and persistently high EU power prices challenge the economics of these facilities. Renewable hydrogen is a critical cost component of EAF-H2-DRI but remains expensive and is yet to be produced at scale. \nThese challenges have been reflected in several EAF projects facing delays, with some terminal, largely due to financial issues. \n\nUncertain economic outlook  \nImpact channel: supply and demand  \nOn the producers’ side, many European steelmakers have pushed back or cancelled planned DRI-EAF facilities, including ArcelorMittal and Salzgitter in Germany. Producers are instead favouring more cautious phased green transitions, reflecting the current weak economic climate and tight margins in steel production.  \nFastmarkets projects European HRC consumption to remain broadly flat through 2035, reflecting structural weakness in key downstream sectors. The construction industry faces limited growth in new building activity, while automotive production has stagnated, with only modest recovery expected toward 2035. \nRegulatory uncertainty  \nImpact channel: demand  \nThe upcoming implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is generating significant attention across EU industries. However, some of the key implementation rules are still to be defined, including whether embedded emissions can be based on default references values or verified actual values. \nFastmarkets’ trade flow modelling forecasts that the choice of default values or verified values will have a notable impact on both the direction and magnitude of impacts across products. In iron and steel, for instance, model results show price increases up to 30% higher under national averages compared to facility level reporting. \nGiven the uncertainty around the rules and outcome of CBAM, buyers in the market have already indicated hesitancy for the year ahead. As such, demand for green steel is expected to show limited progress as businesses adapt to changing rules and new costs.  \nTailwinds \nRising carbon prices under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and CBAM \nImpact channel: supply \nThe EU ETS prices emissions in Europe, by requiring domestic producers in certain sectors to buy emissions allowances for each tonne of CO2 they emit. CBAM, due to be implemented in 2026, reflects this price for imports into the EU.  \nAllowance prices in the EU ETS currently trade at 80 €/tCO2 and are projected to increase to 142 €/tCO2 by 2035 under our base scenario. However, projections are uncertain with analyst ranges from as low as 86 €/tCO2 by 2035, to as high as 216 €/tCO2.  \nTo date, the steel sector has managed to avoid paying for most these allowances, with the EU providing much of them for free to protect against carbon leakage. However, these free allowances will gradually be phased out between 2026 and 2034 for domestic steel producers and importers. \nAs free allowances phase out and carbon prices rise, higher emission steel producers face mounting cost pressures relative to lower emissions producers. This will drive investment in cleaner technologies, though outcomes will vary with the strength of future EU ETS prices.  \n\nUpcoming demand from Scope 3 targets and coalitions \nImpact channel: demand \nSeveral private-sector coalitions have emerged to create early markets for low-emissions technologies. For green steel, this includes First Movers Coalition, ResponsibleSteel, and Steel Zero, each with their own targets and specifications for the emissions levels of steel that can be purchased over time. \nValue-chain emissions reductions targets (Scope 3) will also drive demand for lower-emissions inputs such as green steel. Companies are increasingly setting these targets via organisations such as the Science Based Targeting initiative (SBTi), who saw a 227% jump in the number of companies with near-term and net-zero targets, from end-2023 to 2025-Q2. \nIdentifying which companies are most able or willing to pay a premium for low-carbon steel is critical to understanding market demand. At the company level, ability to pay is influenced by various factors including:   \n\nProfit-emissions ratios: If companies allocate similar budget shares to reducing emissions, higher ratios imply more money can be allocated per tCO2 to reduce emissions. Many of the current green steel buyers are well above the median profit-emissions ratio for their sector. \n\n\nEmissions targets: Ambitious targets require greater pursuit of decarbonisation options. This is particularly relevant for green steel if steel currently contributes to a large share of upstream and total emissions, such as electric vehicles. \n\n\nProduct power: Luxury brands, may have greater ability to pass through costs to consumers than a mass-market brand would. \n\n\nCost structure: Premiums are easier to absorb when steel makes up a smaller share of manufacturing costs, such as car manufacturing. \n\n\nGreen public procurement (GPP) and subsidies \nImpact channel: supply and demand\nBoth EU and national public procurement directives are including environmental criteria into tenders, incentivising low-emission procurement. National GPP implementations include adding discounts to bids meeting environmental criteria (Netherlands) or adding minimum green standard requirements to tenders (Austria and Italy).   Additionally, nearly €9.3 billion in state aid has been approved by the European Commission to support the steel industry transition from blast furnaces to cleaner electric arc furnaces.  \nLooking ahead \nWhile short-term conditions remain difficult, the foundations for Europe’s green steel market are strengthening. Climate policy, corporate sustainability targets, and shifting buyer preferences are aligning to support long-term growth in the market. \nFastmarkets will release its European Green Steel Forecasts to 2035 at the end of November, offering a forward view of how these market forces will shape Europe’s low-carbon steel transition.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.11","shortVersion":"4.35.11","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2583508178","isCrawlerRequest":true}