Stop FOMO Investing: Six Key Metrics to Identify Truly High-Potential Projects

Blockbeats11-17

Original Title: Evaluating Airdrop Potential: The「Farm or Pass」FrameworkOriginal Author: DeFi Warhol, Crypto ResearcherOriginal Translation: Ding Dang, Odaily Planet DailyCryptocurrency airdrops may ...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStop FOMO Investing: Six Key Metrics to Identify Truly High-Potential Projects\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-17 15:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/60217><strong>Blockbeats</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Original Title: Evaluating Airdrop Potential: The「Farm or Pass」FrameworkOriginal Author: DeFi Warhol, Crypto ResearcherOriginal Translation: Ding Dang, Odaily Planet DailyCryptocurrency airdrops may ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/60217\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FOMO","symbol_name":"FOMO ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/60217","article_id":"2584104886","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"theblockbeats_highlight","url":"https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/60217","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584104886","pubTimestamp":1763365740,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"theblockbeats_highlight","name":"Blockbeats"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Is it addressing a real-world issue or just following a trend?A strong use case or technological innovation  usually means that the token's value is less likely to rapidly go to zero after the initial hype. For example, Arbitrum was a leading Ethereum L2 before its token launch, with real users and an ecosystem, which gave participants reasons to believe that its airdrop would be significant. In contrast, many featureless copycat projects quickly tanked post-launch due to farming concentration sell-offs.· Does the project have an attractive narrative or fit into a trend?The crypto market is narrative-driven. In 2023–2024, themes like modular blockchains, re-staking, ZK-rollups attracted significant funds. If a project aligns with a hot narrative , its token demand may see disproportionate growth. However, narratives can also quickly lose steam , so I prefer narratives backed by solid technology.· Are users and developers genuinely active?Checking on-chain data and community channels is","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"theblockbeats.info","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"FOMO":"FOMO ETF"},"translate_title":"停止FOMO投资：识别真正高潜力项目的六个关键指标","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FOMO":1.5},"content_text":"Original Title: Evaluating Airdrop Potential: The「Farm or Pass」FrameworkOriginal Author: DeFi Warhol, Crypto ResearcherOriginal Translation: Ding Dang, Odaily Planet DailyCryptocurrency airdrops may seem like \"free money,\" but seasoned airdrop hunters know that not every airdrop is worth the gas and effort. Over the past 5–7 years, I have participated in dozens of airdrops, some of which eventually turned into six-figure gains, while others ended up yielding nothing.The difference lies in whether a thorough evaluation has been conducted. In this report, I will attempt to provide a framework for assessing airdrop potential.I have developed a relatively objective evaluation system to determine whether an airdrop opportunity is worth participating in or if it should be skipped altogether. I will combine real-life examples (from the legendary Uniswap airdrop to the latest L2 airdrops) and some quantifiable benchmarks to provide a reference for professional crypto practitioners and even VCs to identify high-potential, low-risk airdrop opportunities.Airdrop Evaluation Key FactorsAssessing whether an airdrop has potential is not a matter of guesswork or chasing hot trends but a structured process. We can approach it from several core dimensions, each pointing to key points of risk or reward:· Protocol Fundamentals and Narrative· Token Distribution and Economic Model· Participation Conditions and Anti-Whale Mechanism· Cost, Investment, and Risk-Reward Ratio· Market Environment and Timing· Liquidity and Exit StrategyNext, I will delve into each dimension, including what questions to ask and why they are important.1. Protocol Fundamentals and NarrativeBefore you dive into testnets or cross-chain funds, you must first assess the project itself. An airdrop is not magic; its value comes from the success of the underlying protocol.· What is the project about? Is it addressing a real-world issue or just following a trend?A strong use case or technological innovation (such as a new scaling solution, unique DeFi primitive) usually means that the token's value is less likely to rapidly go to zero after the initial hype. For example, Arbitrum was a leading Ethereum L2 before its token launch, with real users and an ecosystem, which gave participants reasons to believe that its airdrop would be significant. In contrast, many featureless copycat projects quickly tanked post-launch due to farming concentration sell-offs.· Does the project have an attractive narrative or fit into a trend?The crypto market is narrative-driven. In 2023–2024, themes like modular blockchains, re-staking, ZK-rollups attracted significant funds. If a project aligns with a hot narrative (e.g., a modular data network like Celestia), its token demand may see disproportionate growth. However, narratives can also quickly lose steam (which they often do), so I prefer narratives backed by solid technology.· Are users and developers genuinely active?Checking on-chain data and community channels is crucial. Active testnets along with Discord groups, weekly dev updates are positive signals. It's even better if user engagement isn't merely speculative. For example, Blur (an NFT marketplace) achieved explosive growth and real trading volume after gamifying its airdrop, signaling organic user growth rather than purely speculative behavior.A protocol with a compelling narrative, strong community engagement forms the bedrock. If the project itself lacks value, no amount of clever airdrop design can save the token price. I personally learned this lesson the hard way: in 2022, I spent several months on some L1 testnets that failed to attract real users, and even after token launches, there were no takers, resulting in over 90% price drop.In a nutshell: if I have zero interest in the project beyond the airdrop, I would think twice about participating.2. Token Distribution and Economic ModelToken design is the second key factor, including airdrop allocation ratio, release schedule, valuation, and value capture mechanisms. I primarily focus on the following:· User allocation percentage· Value capture mechanism· Release and vesting rules· TVL Evaluation · Market Price vs. Early Valuation Signal Pre-TGE· Fair DistributionUser Allocation RatioHow much should be airdropped to users?Airdropping a sufficient share to users usually cultivates a stronger community and provides some price support. Historically, projects airdropped>10% of the supply have outperformed those airdropping <5%, as the latter often suffer from a lack of circulating supply, leading users to dump their tokens immediately. For example, in 2020, Uniswap airdropped 15% of UNI, reaching a peak value of around $6.4 billion, solidifying its governance community's loyalty.Conversely, some projects launched in 2024 allocated a very small percentage to users, with most held by insiders. Users quickly sold off their meager share, and the token price never recovered. Celestia's TIA Genesis Airdrop allocated about 7.4%, while Arbitrum allocated around 11.6%, both sizable enough to give users real \"skin in the game.\" When only a tiny portion is allocated to the community, I see it as a red flag for token dumping.2024 Crypto Airdrops: Low User Allocation and High Insider HoldingsValue Capture Mechanism· What role does the token play in the protocol? How does it capture value?Not all tokens share in the protocol's growth, a point that has been starkly evident in many failed airdrops.Some tokens only hold governance functions, such as UNI or DYDX. Governance can build long-term value in some cases, especially when the DAO is responsible for managing real cash flow or critical system parameters, allowing governance tokens to reflect the protocol's profit distribution. However, if the protocol itself has low fees or if governance is largely symbolic in practice, the token becomes a \"participation trophy,\" and the market ultimately assigns very low value to such a token that does not generate tangible returns.Some projects also build value capture through revenue sharing, buybacks, staking rewards, or protocol fee capture, such as HYPE or GMX. These types of tokens can offer airdrop participants more strategic choices—either they can claim the token and immediately sell it, or hold it long term to receive cash flow. I prefer tokens that can have a positive economic impact, not just serving as a governance \"receipt,\" but also influencing transaction fees, inflation, or protocol throughput.Lockup and Vesting Mechanism· Can airdropped tokens be immediately tradable, or are they locked or restricted?Generally, \"immediately sellable\" tokens are more favorable to opportunistic individuals, as they can quickly cash out. If a token is non-transferable or subject to long-term lockups, it essentially means you are forced into a long-term hold—often jokingly referred to as \"day traders being turned into forced hodlers.\" The 2024 EIGEN airdrop is a classic example. Users had to work hard to earn points for a whole year, but after the token launched, transfers were initially disabled, leading to widespread dissatisfaction among those trying to game the system.Therefore, I typically avoid airdrop projects with mandatory long locks or complex veToken-style claiming mechanisms unless I have extremely high confidence in the project's long-term value. My airdrop strategy fundamentally seeks \"optionality,\" rather than being forced into a long-term bet. Remember a very practical principle: \"No protocol is absolutely safe, so no airdrop should ever require you to hold absolutely long term.\"Fully Diluted Valuation· Estimate the token's FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation at the time of issuance - Total Supply × Expected Price).An excessively high FDV almost inevitably brings about selling pressure because no airdrop can \"defy valuation magic.\" In 2024, most airdrops launched with significantly high FDV and experienced widespread 50–80% corrections within two weeks. A study covering 62 airdrops found that 88% of tokens experienced a decline within 15 days of launch, often due to the initial pricing being far above the true value.New Token Listing Performance and FDV CorrelationTherefore, I will prioritize looking for projects with a \"margin of safety.\" For example, if similar projects have a market cap in the $500 million range, but a new project's expected FDV is $5 billion, caution must be exercised. Conversely, if the quality is excellent but the pricing is moderate, it is a positive signal.At the same time, liquidity needs to be considered: Will it be listed on major exchanges? Is there sufficient depth on DEXs? Lack of liquidity can cause even high-quality projects to be swiftly sold off due to an inability to absorb selling pressure. In 2024, among the few projects that retain their value a month later, a \"reasonable FDV + deep liquidity\" is almost a common feature.Pre-TGE Market Price and Early Valuation SignalsA new trend is emerging: large potential airdrop projects will engage in pre-listing trading on perpetual DEX or OTC markets before the official launch. These pre-listing markets typically reflect market expectations, sometimes even leading to implied FDVs in the billions of dollars. For yield farmers, these signals are crucial: if the expected FDV is extremely high, it can enhance their marketing efforts and incentivize their involvement, but it also signifies higher risk because if the narrative falls short, there will be a rapid backlash post-listing.I consider these pre-listing prices as \"sentiment indicators\" rather than definitive signals. The key is to recognize when the market has overpaid for unrealized potential and adjust exposure in advance to avoid valuation regression post-listing.Fair Distribution· Check if the airdrop is concentrated in a few wallets or distributed more evenly.A highly concentrated airdrop implies that a small number of large holders may dump a significant amount of chips in a short period. For example, in the case of Arbitrum, despite the overall distribution being generous, some top users received up to 10,250 ARB, forming a \"whale cluster.\"Interestingly, a small number of wallets often hold the majority of the tokens. If I find data (from Dune analytics or the project's blog) indicating that the top 1% of addresses may receive a significant proportion of the total distribution, I will be particularly cautious.I prefer to use designs that limit individual rewards or utilize a secondary distribution formula to avoid \"winner-takes-all.\" For example, Blast L2's point system introduced an activity cap, allowing small active users to receive meaningful distributions, mitigating wealth disparity.In summary, a higher community allocation, freely tradable tokens, and a reasonable valuation mean a healthier airdrop; projects with very small allocations, strong vesting, and a high FDV are more suitable for \"quick in, quick out\" but often not worth a significant upfront investment.3. Eligibility Criteria and Anti-Whale MechanismLet's now move on to another core dimension: how you qualify for an airdrop and how projects identify and exclude \"whale behavior\" (multiple addresses trying to game the airdrop). This part determines two key questions: how likely are you to win? And can you safely scale (multiple wallets or single wallet)?Criteria Transparency· What eligibility criteria has the team disclosed?Some airdrops are entirely \"retroactive\" with surprise clauses (Uniswap airdropped 400 UNI directly to all historical users); others use task-based, point-based, or monthly activities (such as Optimism and Arbitrum).The clearer the criteria, the easier it is to plan a strategy. For example, Arbitrum disclosed the point composition in advance (cross-chain, transactions in different months, providing liquidity, etc.), allowing me to operate in a targeted manner in advance, even maxing out the point limit. Conversely, if the criteria are ambiguous, you may need to participate comprehensively, leading to increased costs and inefficiencies.Single Address Rewards vs. Multiple Address Expansion· Estimate the value that wallets meeting the criteria may receive.Sometimes teams hint at the reward level, or you can infer based on similar airdrop activities in the past. For example, many Ethereum L2 solutions have historically airdropped an average of $500–$2000 in value to each regular participating wallet. If I estimate that the airdrop reward this time is in this range and the tasks are simple, then the cost-benefit ratio is good. But if each address needs significant effort (such as running a node for months) to achieve similar returns, it may only be worth participating with one address or even giving up. There are exceptions, though, such as early dYdX traders receiving tens of thousands of dollars in DYDX.I also consider whether using multiple wallets can really significantly increase returns but need to be wary of whale screening. If the project explicitly expresses \"strong anti-whale\" sentiment, using multiple addresses may not be worth it. For example, Optimism removed over 17,000 whale addresses in 2022; Hop, more directly, reclaimed and redistributed allocations from whale addresses after the airdrop.My rule of thumb: The higher the witch risk, the more important it is to focus on nurturing one or two \"high-quality genuine accounts\" rather than blindly diversifying.Witch Identification MechanismAside from direct bans, some projects will boost the score of \"genuine users\" through scoring weight or design preference, such as: long-term activity weighting, on-chain reputation NFTs, KYC, etc. In 2024, LayerZero identified 800,000 witch addresses and reduced their rewards to a normal level of 15%.Additionally, it's also important to pay attention to some easily \"stuck\" conditions, such as Starknet's first airdrop round requiring wallets to hold at least 0.005 ETH at snapshot time, leading to the exclusion of many genuine users. Furthermore, some projects set early tasks on testnets like NF or Galxe/Crew3 as prerequisites, missing which disqualifies participants, so early attention is required.Rule Change RiskThe worst-case scenario is: you complete all tasks, only for the project to change the rules and exclude you. Although this situation is rare, it has indeed occurred.The solution is to stay synced with the community and be aware of the team's definition of \"suspicious behavior.\" For example, \"multiple new wallets being funded from one address\" is almost certain to be viewed as witch behavior.I appreciate projects that communicate clearly, but we always assume that the possibility of being excluded is not zero. This mindset can prevent overconfidence. One thing to note is: \"If you missed the opportunity, that's on you, it's that simple.\" Blockchain data doesn't care about excuses, so I try to cultivate in a way that can withstand scrutiny.In conclusion, understanding airdrop eligibility enables us to assess the competition level of the airdrop and how to mine it. In cases of high witch attack risk, more caution is needed (it's best to devote time to a reliable identity), while open, freely participatory airdrops (without witch attack checks, entirely based on transaction volume, etc.) may be more suitable for a multi-wallet strategy, but these strategies are often diluted by a large number of airdrop spammers. This requires a clever balance, and my default practice is to operate like a \"real power user\" on at least one account, enabling me to bypass most witch attack screenings and receive substantial rewards.4. Investment, Cost, and Risk-RewardThe final airdrop harvesting requires an investment of time and capital, so I must conduct a cost-benefit analysis in advance:Time and ComplexitySome tasks only require a single interaction, while some testnet incentives may require weeks or even months of continuous participation. I will list all tasks in advance and estimate the time cost.If an activity is only expected to yield $500 in revenue but requires 100 hours of work, it is definitely not worth it. Furthermore, be especially wary of \"never-ending point system activities,\" as they often devolve into endless loops of diminishing returns.From some projects I participated in 2022, I learned that setting a deadline is crucial. For example, \"If my points are still not at the top X% level of the leaderboard after a month, then reevaluate. If it's still not working, then stop participating.\"Gas vs. Direct CostsI calculate how much Gas I will consume (or transaction fees) as well as other costs (cross-chain bridge fees, minimum deposit requirements, etc.). For example, Arbitrum's standard encourages users to cross-chain $10,000 or more and stay active over several months; during periods of high Gas prices, these operations on certain networks are not cheap. All these investments must be weighed against potential returns.A good approach is to simulate several transactions first, observe the actual Gas consumption, and then multiply by the expected number of iterations or wallet quantities. Some mining projects may look good on paper, but when you do the math, the Gas alone may exceed the potential rewards, and I have abandoned them for this reason (especially during the 2021 Gas price surge, where many small airdrops were simply not worth spending $100 in Gas to claim).Capital Risk· Does the platform require you to lock up a large amount of funds or bear market risk?Being an LP, lending assets, or staking tokens can expose you to impermanent loss, smart contract risks, or even protocol vulnerabilities. For example, during the DeFi \"liquidity mining\" craze, some platforms (like Sushi) did offer airdrops, but miners faced threats of liquidity or protocol vulnerabilities.If a new protocol (such as a recently launched bridge or lending platform) requires you to deposit a large amount of funds just to be eligible for an airdrop, you need to assess its audit status and consider the potential risk of exploitation. Hacks are not just theoretical events: from the $600 million Ronin bridge exploit to minor failures in multiple testnet bridges, many LPs have had their principal drained due to vulnerabilities while chasing airdrops.Worst-Case Scenario AssessmentAlways ask yourself: \"What if I end up with nothing in the end?\"If the answer is: I will lose an amount of money or time that I cannot afford, then it is not worth doing. I usually assume that some mining projects will fail (project cancels airdrop, I get rejected, or the token has no value). For example, I once invested a significant amount of time in some L1 testnets (won't name names), but the project never launched its token—it was a sunk cost. These lessons have taught me to minimize irreversible investments as much as possible.In terms of time cost, this means regularly reassessing and not being blinded by the \"sunk cost fallacy\"; in terms of money cost, this means not spending too much on Gas or staying as flexible as possible (for example, using scripts or choosing off-peak times to reduce costs).To determine \"worthiness,\" I usually do a simple expected return calculation: for example, airdrop probability (80% likely to happen, 20% may not happen) * estimated token value (e.g., $1000 per wallet) minus total cost. If the expected value is significantly positive and the subjective judgment is also reasonable, I will continue; if the result is marginal or negative, I will stop or wait for clearer information.5. Market Environment and TimingBull Market vs. Bear MarketIn a bull market, airdrops can be very profitable because tokens usually launch at a higher valuation, with stronger buying pressure and more evident FOMO; whereas in a bear market, even a good project's launch may face subdued demand. For example, most major airdrops in 2022–2023 (such as Optimism and Aptos) occurred during a bear market, leading to rapid sell-offs post-launch and slow recoveries.Conversely, airdrops during the 2021 bull market often continued to rise after launch. I do not try to precisely time the overall market (airdrops and mining fundamentally neutral to the market pre-launch), but the market sentiment affects my mining enthusiasm and exit strategies (discussed in the next chapter). In a bull market, I am more proactive in exploring more opportunities and tend to hold for a longer period; in a bear market, I only choose the most promising ones to participate in and tend to sell shortly after launch.Narrative CycleNarrative fit depends not only on whether the category is trending but also on whether you are entering at the right time.For example, the early 2024 narrative of \"re-staking\" is an absolute hot topic, drawing massive attention as long as there is a slight airdrop expectation. If you participate when the TVL is still low, you will stand out more; however, by Q1 2024, the field is crowded, and latecomers find it challenging to distinguish themselves.I will assess whether a particular airdrop phase is considered \"early\" or \"late.\" If everyone is talking about a testnet on Network X, the easy money has likely been taken, and the project will be stricter against bots. Conversely, a low-profile project in an emerging sector might be a hidden gem. For example, in 2025, an AI + DeFi hybrid protocol began to attract attention, and airdrops from such projects may not have been fully claimed by a large number of miners yet, increasing the chances of success.Project's Own TimelineIt's essential to observe the project's stage. If the mainnet or token launch is imminent (e.g., within a few weeks), your mining time will be limited, and the standards are usually already established. In the case of a long-term testnet without a specified end date, you will have to decide how long you are willing to commit. Some projects distribute incentives by \"seasons\"; if a schedule is made public, you can plan ahead.Also, pay attention to the snapshot time. Many airdrops take a snapshot at a particular block height. If you realize the snapshot is approaching, it's the final sprint; if you feel you have done enough, you can also reduce additional expenses.Ability to Handle Negative NewsThis is a subtle yet crucial factor to consider: observe how the project deals with negative events. Will the testnet crash scare away users? Has the team postponed the token sale? If the project faces a hack or accident, but the team handles it professionally and the community stands by, this resilience will increase my confidence, indicating genuine demand. On the other hand, if a minor delay causes people to angrily abandon the project, their interest is not deep enough.A project that can \"ignore bad news in a bull market narrative\" may be in a more advantageous position. I have seen similar cases with Arbitrum and Optimism: despite airdrop controversies and governance FUD, the user base continues to grow, demonstrating strong underlying demand.In conclusion, the situation is crucial. I am more cautious during a bubble period (everyone is mining, and the competition is fierce), but I become more proactive during a market downturn (fewer people willing to hold on, potentially leading to greater returns). My most significant airdrop gains came at the end of 2022 when almost no one was willing to continue mining; by the time these tokens went live in 2023 (e.g., ARB), I was among the few who could reap the rewards.6. Liquidity and Exit StrategyLastly, I will plan in advance how to realize the airdrop value. The old saying still holds: \"Plan your trades, and trade your plans.\"Claiming StrategyThe moment when tokens are available for claiming is often the most chaotic. I remember the day ARB opened for claiming, Gas prices surged, RPC went down, and the entire network was in chaos.I usually prepare multiple RPC backups and have them ready in case scripting the claim is possible. If I have multiple wallets, I prioritize claiming the batch intended for immediate sale to ensure completion before congestion sets in; there's no rush for the portion intended for long-term hold.It's also important to note the claiming deadlines: most airdrops allow claiming over several months, but some tokens may be reclaimed to the DAO after expiration.Market LiquidityI tend to choose airdrops that have deep liquidity upon listing. If a project has significant institutional backing or high popularity, major exchanges like Binance or Coinbase are likely to list early; if not, there will at least be large AMM pools available.For example, after ARB was listed, it immediately traded on major platforms with a daily trading volume exceeding $1 billion, ensuring a smooth exit. In contrast, a small airdrop may only trade on a single DEX with very thin liquidity, leading to significant price impact when selling.I research in advance whether a project has announced market makers or exchange partnerships, which is typically a good sign; conversely, if it requires a native wallet or is a niche Cosmos project, I anticipate higher price volatility and accordingly reduce my position (or even skip the airdrop altogether).Sell, Hold, or StakeI usually decide in advance what percentage to sell immediately and what percentage to continue holding. Experience has shown that most airdrop tokens peak in value within the first two weeks.My strategy often involves selling about 50% on the claiming day to lock in profits, setting stop-loss or take-profit orders for the remaining portion, or tracking trends.This approach helps hedge against the common risk of a sharp price drop while retaining upside potential. Unless it's a project I have high confidence in, or the price is significantly below my perceived fair range, I don't hold long-term; even if I do, I assess whether I can earn additional rewards through staking. However, if an extended lockup period is required (e.g., governance lockups), I carefully consider the loss of flexibility.Taxation and ComplianceTax implications are also important. Many jurisdictions consider airdrops as taxable income received at the time of distribution. A substantial airdrop can result in an immediate tax liability, so sometimes I choose to sell early to set aside funds for taxes.Additionally, regional restrictions should be noted; for instance, EigenLayer restricts airdrop claiming for U.S. users. If a project hints at future KYC requirements or geofencing, I consider it a negative factor, as it may render the airdrop worthless to me. For example, in 2025, several airdrops have begun requiring simple KYC to comply with regulations.In conclusion, until a token is liquid and successfully sold, an airdrop cannot be considered true profit. I always establish an exit plan for each airdrop in advance to avoid being trapped during a liquidity collapse.Best Practices and Final ThoughtsConsidering the above, I follow the following best practices when evaluating early airdrops:Do Your Homework: Before engaging in any \"task,\" research the project's fundamentals and tokenomics. Read the documents, governance discussions, and look for signs of issuance. Many failures stem from \"assuming there will be an airdrop, but in reality, there won't be\" (and vice versa). Do not rely solely on rumors; always verify the possibilities.Develop an Investment Strategy (to be constantly validated): Clearly assess why an airdrop may hold value, such as \"the project is a leader in a new category, with a potentially low initial market cap and strong demand.\" Then continually validate with on-chain data and news. If the narrative breaks (growth stalls, competitors surpass), be decisive in adjusting or exiting. Avoid getting caught in self-confirmation bias.Quantitative Scoring and Comparison: I use a spreadsheet to score across dimensions like \"fundamentals, token potential, cost/risk, Sybil difficulty.\" It can reveal many issues—some projects, while very hot, have extremely poor token distribution, resulting in a lower overall score. This way, you can discover some low-key but higher value opportunities.Manage Risk, Avoid Gambling: Treat airdrops as a portfolio, diversifying across multiple opportunities rather than going all-in. This approach allows other projects to compensate if one fails. I usually mine on 5–10 projects simultaneously per quarter, knowing that only about half may be profitable. The core principle: preserve your capital to seize opportunities during major airdrops.Monitor On-Chain Metrics: Observe metrics like new wallet additions, testnet usage, ranking positions, etc. If you notice a relative decline in your contribution value, reassess if it's worth continuing. If overall project activity decreases, it may indicate insufficient underlying value, a bad sign for the token's ultimate value.Plan Entry and Exit: Know how to exit before participating. If you can't sell smoothly post-launch (illiquidity, long lockups), you shouldn't participate at all. Execute as planned on launch day, not swayed by greed or fear.Continuous Learning and Iteration: Every airdrop (regardless of success or failure) offers insights: did you overestimate the project? Did you overlook critical qualifications? Were you too conservative and missed out on significant opportunities? These continually refine your framework. Over time, my approach to airdrops has become more \"cautiously opportunistic\": cautious of all noise but unhesitant in seizing real opportunities when they present themselves.In conclusion, evaluating early-stage airdrops is a delicate balance of art and science: it requires an understanding of human nature, narrative, and incentive structures (the \"art\"), as well as data analysis and deconstruction of tokenomics (the \"science\"). The best airdrops often reward those who genuinely engage early and contribute to the ecosystem, rather than just temporary participants.This means that if you sincerely use early and support a great project, you usually receive the greatest rewards. My framework helps filter out these scenarios. By focusing on fundamentals, making practical judgments on token design, accurately assessing costs and rewards, and maintaining flexibility and updated knowledge, you significantly increase the probability of selecting airdrops that are \"worth mining\".Ultimately, airdrop hunting is like any other investment, requiring due diligence, risk management, and a clear strategy. By doing these, you can find signals in the noise and have the opportunity to capture the next UNI- or ARB-level opportunity.Original Article Link\nWelcome to join the official BlockBeats community:\nTelegram Subscription Group: https://t.me/theblockbeats\nTelegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App\nOfficial Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2584104886","isCrawlerRequest":true}