MW Here's the message to draw from the S&P 500 falling below the 50-day average for the first time in 139 sessions
By Steve Goldstein
Is the S&P 500 falling below its 50-day average something to get worried about?
How would an 8% gain before dividends sound?
If that sounds solid if unspectacular, you'd be right: according to the financial-market historians Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton, the average return on U.S. equities, dating back to 1900, is 9.7% per year.
As the S&P 500 SPX broke below the 50-day average for the first time in 139 sessions, MarketWatch did a little vibe coding (Python script available upon request) and looked back to find out what happened when the benchmark index broke below that technical level in the past.
The answer is, not all that much different than normal.
In the 579 times since 1950 that the index has crosses below its 50-day average, the median 12-month price gain is 8.45%. Add in dividends - the current dividend yield on the S&P 500 is 1.2% - and what you have is absolutely pedestrian behavior when that technical indicator is reached.
To filter things further, MarketWatch then looked at only the times when the S&P 500 had gained at least 10% over the preceding 12 months (over the last 12 months, the S&P 500 has gained 13%).
That cut the universe of times roughly in half, but did little to performance, which were 8.2% over 12 months.
For the Nasdaq 100 NDX, which also crossed below the 50-day average, the median 12-month return when it broke below its 50-day and had preceding 12-month gains of at least 10% was 14.9%.
Also read: S&P 500, Nasdaq book their worst day in a month. More selling could be on the way.
-Steve Goldstein
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 18, 2025 05:07 ET (10:07 GMT)
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