T. Rowe Price's Scott Berg: Yes we're in a bubble, no you shouldn't sell

LiveWire11-19

The word "bubble" invokes the need for immediate action. By their very nature, bubbles are precarious and fleeting and the temptation is to do something before it's too late. But, as the old maxim ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2584495029?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2025-11-19 03:45","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2584495029","market":"nz","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"T. Rowe Price's Scott Berg: Yes we're in a bubble, no you shouldn't sell","media":"LiveWire","content":"<div>\n<p>The word \"bubble\" invokes the need for immediate action. By their very nature, bubbles are precarious and fleeting and the temptation is to do something before it's too late. \nBut, as the old maxim ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/t-rowe-price-s-scott-berg-yes-we-re-in-a-bubble-no-you-shouldn-t-sell\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"livewire_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>T. Rowe Price's Scott Berg: Yes we're in a bubble, no you shouldn't sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nT. Rowe Price's Scott Berg: Yes we're in a bubble, no you shouldn't sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-19 03:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/t-rowe-price-s-scott-berg-yes-we-re-in-a-bubble-no-you-shouldn-t-sell><strong>LiveWire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The word \"bubble\" invokes the need for immediate action. By their very nature, bubbles are precarious and fleeting and the temptation is to do something before it's too late. \nBut, as the old maxim ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/t-rowe-price-s-scott-berg-yes-we-re-in-a-bubble-no-you-shouldn-t-sell\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4023","symbol_name":"应用软件","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/t-rowe-price-s-scott-berg-yes-we-re-in-a-bubble-no-you-shouldn-t-sell","article_id":"2584495029","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"livewire_stock","url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/t-rowe-price-s-scott-berg-yes-we-re-in-a-bubble-no-you-shouldn-t-sell","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584495029","pubTimestamp":1763495102,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"livewire_stock","name":"Livewire Markets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The word \"bubble\" invokes the need for immediate action. By their very nature, bubbles are precarious and fleeting and the temptation is to do something before it's too late.But, asthe old maxim goes, markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.T. Rowe Priceglobal equities portfolio manager Scott  Bergis explicitly calling the current market a bubble, but he's also keen to stress that now isn't the time for radical action, even as the world feels increasingly tumultuous.\"I don’t think the bubble’s going to pop imminently.\". According to Berg, there are five key dimensions driving markets - Trump 2.0, AI, the economy and corporate earnings, the Fed and rates, and escalating geopolitics.On Trump, Berg suggests investors are still underestimating the president's genuine policy intentions.Whilst investors have been quick to downplay Trump’s policies, we believe this misrepresents his cast-iron commitment to actually remoulding global trade.\"AI technology will change all ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4023":"应用软件","BK4543":"AI","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","SG9999001440.SGD":"United Global Dividend Equity Fund A SGD Dist","BK4613":"AI应用软件","BK4212":"包装食品与肉类","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","TROW":"普信集团","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD"},"translate_title":"T.Rowe Price的Scott Berg：是的，我们正处于泡沫之中，不，你不应该出售","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TROW":1.5},"content_text":"The word \"bubble\" invokes the need for immediate action. By their very nature, bubbles are precarious and fleeting and the temptation is to do something before it's too late. \nBut, as the old maxim goes, markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. \nT. Rowe Price global equities portfolio manager Scott  Berg is explicitly calling the current market a bubble, but he's also keen to stress that now isn't the time for radical action, even as the world feels increasingly tumultuous. \n\"I don’t think the bubble’s going to pop imminently.\"\nA world of profound change\nAccording to Berg, there are five key dimensions driving markets - Trump 2.0, AI, the economy and corporate earnings, the Fed and rates, and escalating geopolitics.\nOn Trump, Berg suggests investors are still underestimating the president's genuine policy intentions. Whilst investors have been quick to downplay Trump’s policies, we believe this misrepresents his cast-iron commitment to actually remoulding global trade.\nMarkets may have shrugged off tariffs, but that doesn't overcome the reality that an effective 18% tariff rate is currently being collected on all goods coming into the US every day, says Berg.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe US effective tariff rate over the last 100 years (Source: T. Rowe Price)\n\"It wasn't an empty threat. It's a profound change to global trade to have something that looks like a global GST.\"\nOn AI, Berg is adamant that it's currently in a market bubble, but that the technology itself is not a bubble. \n\n\"AI technology will change all your lives, your children's lives, the world, just like electricity did or just like the internet did,\" says Berg. \"The internet was not a bubble as a technology.\"\nEven still, he's not calling the top on AI and tech stocks.\n\"I'm going to disagree that it is time to be out of tech and the bubble's about to blow right now,\" he said. \"I think the bubble is less likely to pop immediately.\" \n\nWhy we're definitely in a bubble\nThere are myriad data points and indicators that show we're currently in a stock market bubble, says Berg. \nOne major indicator is simply that almost all markets and asset classes are showing strong performance, despite the profound political and economic changes unfolding around the world. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nGlobal market returns in 2025 (Source: T. Rowe Price)\nWe are effectively in an \"everything\" bull market, ultimately fuelled by leverage and liquidity. \n\n\"This is what happens in bubbles,\" said Berg. \n\"As long as you own a house or you own commodities, doesn't matter if it's gold or silver or uranium, whether you own stocks, wherever in the world, whether it's China, whether it's Europe, whether it's the US, you're getting richer.\"\nIt's also the nature of the investments that are outperforming that shows further evidence of a bubble. \"Meme stocks\" and profitless tech are far out-pacing other assets.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSpeculative investments are outperforming the rest of the market (Source: T. Rowe Price)\nHe recalls the quote from Benjamin Graham, economist and mentor to Warren Buffett, who suggested stock markets are \"voting machines\" in the short term, where investors chase narratives, and \"weighing machines\" in the long term, where investors look to fundamentals. \nHe points to the shift during the 2022 correction when hyped tech stocks went from being called \"innovation companies\" to \"profitless tech\" as an example of the shift from voting machine to weighing machine. We're now back in the voting machine part of the cycle, says Berg. \nBerg highlights the recent example of Beyond Meat (NASDAQ: BYND), which pumped 800% in a single day before crashing again.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBeyond Meat 1-month chart (Source: TradingView)\n\"That is what happens in bubbles,\" says Berg. \"You get liquidity chasing risk, and it's like a casino.\"\nA different example comes at the other end of the tech spectrum in the form of Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR), a profitable and successful company that is trading at extreme valuations.\nIt was recently trading at 100 times revenue, making it one of only a handful of stocks to ever do so, according to Berg. All of the others occurred during the 90s and Covid bubbles. \nAnother indicator has been the speed of the equities recovery following Trump's Liberation Day earlier this year. It was the quickest the S&P 500 has recovered from a 15% drop since the 1980s, taking a mere 85 days to regain its previous level. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHow quickly the S&P 500 has recovered after 15%+ crashes (Source: T. Rowe Price)\nBerg points out that the two other quickest recoveries occurred in 1998 and 2020, both on the way up in a bubble that then popped a few years later. \nUltimately, it's also how investor expectations have shifted that shows we're in a bubble, says Berg. \n\"We've delivered 20% annualised return for three years. We've delivered a 17.5% return the year through September. And people are disappointed with that.\"\n\"That's the first little 'ding, ding, ding', when you all think 20% annualised for three years is disappointing. That should be a little warning sign because in all of history, 20% for three years is very rare.\"\nHow to navigate the bubble\nSo while Berg is adamant we're already in a bubble, he believes there's still plenty to play out before it bursts.\nEarnings growth looks strong across the global economy, and EPS growth is even showing good breadth across both growth and value stocks.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1-year projected EPS growth across global markets (Source: T. Rowe Price)\nThe US Fed is also cutting rates, which suggests the bubble has further to go.\n\"Bubbles at their heart are fuelled by leverage and money chasing risk, and rate cuts fuel that. More rate cuts fuel bubbles. It's not where bubbles die.\"\nSo while the temptation may be to get out while the going remains good, Berg says “leaving the party early can be just as bad as not going.\"\nDuring the Dot-com bubble, more than half the total returns came in the last year of the bull market. Exiting the market early meant missing out on the majority of the returns. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNASDAQ performance during Dot-com bubble (Source: T. Rowe Price)\nKey to navigating the bubble is looking out for signposts around what could cause the bubble to pop. Berg highlighted a multi-dimensional framework he uses to monitor a potential pop by watching key indicators. \nThese include; watching for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, weakening macroeconomic prints suggesting a slowdown, developments in technology (such as setbacks with new chips or AI models like ChatGPT), geopolitical risks (for example, rare earth export bans or major escalations in conflicts), the level of leverage fuelling the bubble, and whether underlying business models can consistently meet high expectations. \nThis wide-ranging framework helps guide Berg’s portfolio positioning by helping identify early warning signs about when a bubble might pop and being ready for the downside. \nUltimately, bubbles are a \"game of two halves\", says Berg. \"The first half is about offence and you need to stay invested to get a good absolute return.\"\nThe second half is about defence once the bubble starts bursting. \"Where you get your relative outperformance in a bubble is outperforming on the way down,\" says Berg. \nInvestors and fund managers who might be beating the pack now at the halfway point could still end up underperforming by the time the rest of the race is run. \nIt's the classic story of the tortoise and the hare, and it's where the best active managers truly earn their stripes, says Berg. \n\"The history of the world is get rich slow and steady works, get rich fast doesn't.\" \nWhen you find yourself in a bubble, it can pay to be more tortoise than hare. \n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2584495029","isCrawlerRequest":true}