By Teresa Rivas
Waiting to Exhale. Stocks fell to start the week, ahead of retail earnings and the release of economic data delayed by the government shutdown. In between, there's earnings from the world's largest company.
Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 557 points, or 1.4%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite each lost 1.3%.
Although most of third-quarter earnings season is in the rearview mirror, this week brings reports from some of the nation's largest retailers, including Walmart and Target, home improvement giants Lowe's and Home Depot, and discounter TJX Cos. The reports aren't just the latest temperature check on the health of the consumer but a chance for major retailers to provide updates as the all-important holiday shopping season gets under way.
"When Walmart reports earnings this week, we'll really be listening for the fundamentals of what they'll talk about -- personally, I'll be listening for any changes in consumer behavior and any changes in the amount of foot traffic they're getting," says Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar. "Are they still seeing customers trade down from traditional supermarkets and retailers to Walmart? What's going on with average check size? I'd be curious to see if they're still getting an increased share of consumer wallets. And then lastly, I'll be listening for any color on whether there's a change in the composition of their discretionary vs. non-discretionary sales."
Later this week, we'll also get the Bureau of Labor Statistics' delayed September jobs report, which investors will be watching closely given that private data have indicated a softening in the labor market.
"A surprisingly strong or surprisingly weak September jobs number would likely have a big impact on expectations for a December rate cut since the FOMC is so split on next steps," notes Dennis Follmer, chief investment officer at Montis Financial.
Still, it's Nvidia's Wednesday earnings that could make or break the course of the market this week, with its 7.5% weighting of the S&P 500. AI skepticism abounds and other big tech companies have fallen in the wake of their earnings. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven exchange-traded fund is off some 4% in the past week alone.
Nvidia has long been the poster child for the AI boom, meaning "investors expect strong Nvidia earnings to quell the recent uptick in AI skepticism that is behind this decline in tech and the S&P 500," writes Sevens Report President Tom Essaye.
Little wonder that investors are holding their breath. After so many months of huge gains, the S&P 500 is on pace for its worst November since 2008, making this week a show-me story.
The Hot Stock: Alphabet +3.1% The Biggest Loser: Dell Technologies -8.4%
Best Sector: Utilities 0.9% Worst Sector: Financials-1.9%
Bitter Bitcoin
It isn't just tech -- other riskier assets have had a tough time as well recently, most notably cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin is barely positive on the year, and its problems have been mounting: Its price fell more than 9% last week alone, -- its worst weekly performance since February -- and it lost a quarter of its value from an all-time high of $126,272.76 on Oct. 6.
The cryptocurrency's troubles might not be over, according to my colleague Doug Busch, who focuses on technical analysis for Barron's new Investor Circle.
He writes that Bitcoin could fall as low as $85,000 from a recent $94,000:
Stocks that often offer clues to Bitcoin's direction include Strategy Inc. and Coinbase Global. The former has fallen on hard times and appears locked in a relentless downtrend. Shares now sit 64% below their annual peak from nearly a year ago, on Nov. 21, 2024. Strategy hasn't posted back-to-back weekly gains since early July, and last week's 18% drop marked its worst weekly performance since April 2024...If the stock cannot stabilize here, another wave of selling could very well develop, potentially driving it toward $180.
Coinbase has held up better than Strategy on a relative basis, but is still 40% off its own annual peak...Coinbase now sits below its 200-day simple moving average, and the move from the descending-triangle breakdown suggests a potential decline toward $150. I remain bearish unless the stock can reclaim the $300 level.
Even some traditionally defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities have outperformed Bitcoin in 2025.
The Calendar
Home Depot, Klarna Group, Medtronic, and PDD Holdings release earnings tomorrow.
The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index November. The consensus estimate is for a 37 reading, even with the October data. The index measures the sentiment of home builders, with readings less than 50 indicative of a dour outlook for the single-family housing market in the next six months.
What We're Reading Today
-- AI Anxiety Reaches Fever Pitch. Why It's Still Not Time to Worry. -- Warren Buffett Knew Google Was a Smart Buy. Berkshire Waited 8 Years. -- Netflix Stock Just Split. What It Means for Shares. -- Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly Weight Loss Price War Heats Up. Why It's a Worry for the Stocks. -- Top Fed Chair Candidates Press Attacks on the Bank
What's Ahead for Markets in 2026? Join Barron's virtual roundtable on Dec. 11.
From "Liberation Day" tariffs to torrid rallies in AI stocks and gold, this year has been full of surprises. Join us for discussions with investment strategists and money managers about the outlook for the economy and markets in 2026 -- and how to position your portfolio for success.
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This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 17, 2025 20:28 ET (01:28 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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