The Bull Case For Illumina (ILMN) Could Change Following Export Ban Easing in China—Learn Why

Simply Wall St.11-18

Earlier this month, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce lifted its export ban on Illumina, Inc., though the company remains on the Unreliable Entities List, requiring government approval for instrument ...

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This regulatory shift allows Illumina to resume some business activity in China, which has been a significant market for the company's genomics solutions and growth strategy. We'll explore how renewed market access in China may influence Illumina's investment narrative and future business outlook. The latest GPUs need a type of rare earth metal called Neodymium and there are only 38 companies in the world exploring or producing it. Find the list for free.AdvertisementIllumina Investment Narrative Recap To be a shareholder in Illumina, you need confidence in the company's ability to drive genomics adoption globally and expand its clinical and research partnerships despite varying regulatory and funding headwinds. The recent lifting of the Chinese export ban allows Illumina to re-enter a crucial market, but ongoing approval requirements mean the biggest risk, reliability of Chinese revenue, remains. In the short term, until the Unreliable Entities List issue is resolved, direct benefits to instrument sales may not be material.\n  Among recent developments, Illumina’s launch of Protein Prep stands out for enabling broader proteomics research in both academic and biobank settings. The adoption of this solution in Asia-Pacific, including for large population health studies, aligns with the company’s key catalysts: expanding clinical adoption and recurring consumables revenue. It highlights Illumina’s continued innovation and focus on high-value applications, which remain central for long-term performance.\n  But before getting too comfortable, investors should remember that with China’s policy still posing hurdles, persistent approval delays could continue to weigh on international revenue and…\n Read the full narrative on Illumina (it's free!)Illumina's narrative projects $4.8 billion in revenue and $873.5 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 3.6% yearly revenue growth and a decrease of $426.5 million in earnings from $1.3 billion today.Uncover how Illumina's forecasts yield a $117.74 fair value, in line with its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesILMN Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025  Five retail investors in the Simply Wall St Community estimate Illumina's fair value from US$86.26 to US$156.51, reflecting wide valuation opinions. Uncertainties around Chinese regulatory constraints may explain some of this range, review the various views to see how investors weigh this risk differently.\nExplore 5 other fair value estimates on Illumina - why the stock might be worth 28% less than the current price!Build Your Own Illumina NarrativeDisagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Illumina research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.Our free Illumina research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Illumina's overall financial health at a glance.Want Some Alternatives?Early movers are already taking notice. See the stocks they're targeting before they've flown the coop:This technology could replace computers: discover 26 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality.Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.These 13 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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