AI热潮退去，Alphabet与苹果显露“幸存者”潜质

金十数据11-24

在近期的市场波动中，有两家“七巨头”公司正脱颖而出，成为该领域最具韧性的选择：Alphabet(GOOGL.O)和苹果(AAPL.O)。自11月初以来，纳斯达克综合指数已下跌6.1%。第三季度财报季后，市场对AI过度支出的担忧集中爆发，即便是本周早些时候英伟达发布的强劲财报也未能缓解这场抛售。Alphabet和苹果在此次回调中受损相对较轻。它们是“七巨头”中仅有的两家在过去三周内股价上涨的公司，...

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Affiliates的股票策略首席投资官Que Nguyen最近对MarketWatch表示，“但他们展现了卓越的资本纪律。如果你担心循环融资和过度支出，苹果完全避开了这些问题。”循环融资指的是这样一种担忧：像英伟达这样的公司正在投资一些AI参与者，而这些参与者随后会购买这些公司的产品。Que Nguyen指出，苹果主要是通过在其用户群中分发他人的技术来推进其AI战略。该公司已与OpenAI合作，将ChatGPT集成到其操作系统和设备中，并有报道称正在洽谈将Gemini纳入其Apple Intelligence产品。此外，据报道苹果也在致力于开发AI家居设备。然而，谷歌股票的优异表现表明，市场并非在惩罚所有的资本支出。该公司在10月份将其2025年AI支出预估上调至910亿至930亿美元的范围，高于7月份的850亿美元，但投资者对谷歌今年在AI方面的进展感到满意。在短短几个月内，谷歌消除了AI会扼杀其搜索业务的担忧，并将Gemini从二流聊天机器人转变为OpenAI的ChatGPT的强大竞争对手。谷歌多元化的业务部门也为其分发和货币化AI技术提供了优势。另一方面，Meta Platforms(META.O)的股价本月下跌了8.3%，此前其首席执行官马克·扎克伯格宣布计划加速AI投资。投资者担心该公司正在不负责任地支出，并且缺乏明确的AI战略。根据Columbia Threadneedle的高级固定收益研究分析师Nathaniel Liddle的说法，像谷歌这样的超大规模企业处于有利地位，能够经受住AI的低迷期。OpenAI已经签署了价值超过1.4万亿美元的AI基础设施协议，但目前尚不清楚该公司将如何履行这些承诺。其首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼最近在X上发帖称，公司预计在2025年底实现超过200亿美元的收入。Liddle在本周早些时候的一次网络研讨会上表示，在最坏的情况下，如果OpenAI未能实现货币化，“并且这些宣布的大型AI支出项目有些未能实现，那么超大规模企业实际上处于相当有利的位置。” AI泡沫的破裂将淘汰较小的参与者，导致支出普遍收缩，从而瓦解目前科技巨头们卷入的AI资本支出竞赛。Liddle特别指出，“谷歌将受益，因为这在搜索领域消除了来自ChatGPT的潜在竞争，也减少了一些支出需求”，这将导致它“在利润表和现金流量表上胜出”。Que Nguyen认为，如果AI交易崩溃，苹果也可能笑到最后。在互联网泡沫时期，“花掉资本的公司反而是那些倒闭的公司，”他说。例如，电信公司朗讯在其产品需求蒸发后就崩溃了，最终被一家外国竞争对手收购。“最大的受益者是后来的公司，它们以低廉的价格收购了这些产能，”Que Nguyen补充道。目前，有数千亿美元的资金正流入循环融资协议和资本支出。如果AI未能产生足够的投资回报，对AI基础设施的需求将会枯竭，数据中心资产也会贬值。Que Nguyen认为，如果AI热潮消退，苹果将处于一个机会主义的有利位置。此次市场抛售也暗示了谁可能是最大的输家。如果AI交易瓦解，英伟达(NVDA.O)和其他硬件供应商的订单将会枯竭。尽管半导体、存储芯片和其他AI基础设施投资今年一直很热门，但Liddle指出，需要注意的是“从历史上看，这些仍然是周期性投资”，并且风险较高。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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