Nasdaq 100's Rocky Month Sets Stage For Powerful Comeback, History Shows

Benzinga_recent_news11-24

Tech stocks took a heavy hit in November, and chances are your portfolio felt the pain—but if panic selling is on your mind, history says you might want to hold off. A historical deep dive into recent...

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AI stocks cooled off, valuations came under scrutiny, and macro fears crept back in.\nYet, if history is any guide, moments like this have repeatedly delivered powerful rebounds for those bold enough to buy the dip.\nBenzinga looked at the last 15 times the Nasdaq 100 fell more than 5% in a month. \nWhat happened next? Big gains—more often than not.\nAfter a monthly drop of more than 5%, the Nasdaq 100 has historically gained an average of 2.56% in 1 month, 8.19% in 3 months, 15.69% in 6 months, and 27.01% over 12 months.\nThe probability of a positive return improved over time, with win rates of 53% at 1 month, 67% at 3 months, 73% at 6 months, and nearly 86% at 12 months.\nThe strongest rebound came after the COVID-driven panic in April 2020, when the Nasdaq 100 soared 67.6% over the following year. January 2023 followed closely with a 53.8% gain over 12 months, while March 2020 delivered a 52.6% return. \nOctober 2022 added another powerful rally to the list, posting a 34.1% gain one year later. \nEven more modest declines proved rewarding—after a 2% dip in October 2023, the index climbed 36.3% over the next year.\nOf course, not every instance turned into a win. The worst result came after the February 2022 drop, when the Nasdaq 100 plunged 18.9% over the following year, as aggressive rate hikes pummeled growth stocks. Similarly, October 2021 ended in a 25.3% loss over 12 months.\nStill, 13 of the 15 historical cases ended with positive one-year returns, reinforcing the idea that tech-sector pullbacks often set the stage for strong comebacks.\nHistorical analysis offers a clear message: Nasdaq 100 pullbacks of 5% or more often precede powerful rallies. \nWith the index heading into the final stretch of the year on weak footing, market history suggests this may be more of a reset than a reversal.\nSure, risks remain. Not every drop leads to a rally, and macro uncertainty is far from over. \nBut if the market is simply pausing to catch its breath after an explosive AI-fueled year, then this pullback could set the stage for the next leg higher.\nRead Next:\nImage created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2585149586","isCrawlerRequest":true}