RBNZ Expected To Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points, Says BofA

MT Newswires Live11-21

Bank of America said it expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on Nov. 26 in response to significant spare capacity and a subdued medium-term inflation outlook, the bank said in a Friday report.

The bank said that it sees a case for a 50 basis points cut, but expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will opt for 25 basis points given uncertainties, lags from earlier easing, and inflation expectations.

The RBNZ will likely signal a data-dependent easing bias, using forecast scenarios to provide clarity and highlight how future policy will hinge on incoming data, the report added.

The bank believes that growth will pick up in the second half of 2025 through 2026, but spare capacity will persist and see core inflation trough below 2% in 2026.

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