LNG export flows near-record levels on Freeport LNG return
Cold weather forecast increases gas demand expectations
Record US gas output allows for increased stockpiling
By Scott DiSavino
Nov 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Friday with flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants back near record highs on the expected return to full service of Freeport LNG's plant in Texas and on a planned jump in demand in two weeks with the coming of some colder-than-normal weather.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.4 cents, or 1.7%, to $4.548 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:48 a.m. EST (1348 GMT).
For the week, however, the front-month was down about 1% after soaring about 52% over the prior four weeks. This week's price decline came with a jump in output to record highs that has allowed energy companies to inject ample amounts of gas into storage. There was about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking ahead, the premium of futures for January over December NGZ25-F26 fell to around 16 cents per mmBtu, its lowest since September 2022.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.4 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.
Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain warmer than normal through December 6 with some colder-than-normal days around November 28-29 and December 3-5.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 118.8 bcfd this week to 119.7 bcfd next week and 131.3 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to 18.0 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October.
In LNG export news, Freeport LNG's plant in Texas was on track to take in more gas on Friday in a sign that one of its three liquefaction trains returned to service after shutting down on Thursday.
Elsewhere, the Imsaikah LNG vessel continued to move across the Atlantic Ocean to Exxon Mobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data and analysts' comments.
The ship, expected to arrive at Golden Pass around November 29, is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the commissioning of the plant. The facility is expected to start producing LNG later this year or early next year.
The United States became the world's biggest LNG producer in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Around the world, gas was trading at a 15-month low of about $10 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe, but at a three-month high near $12 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Nov 21 Forecast | Week ended Nov 14 Actual | Year ago Nov 21 | Five-year average Nov 21 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +3 | -14 | -2 | -25 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,949 | 3,946 | 3,967 | 3,775 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +4.6% | +3.8% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 4.53 | 4.47 | 2.98 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 10.27 | 10.38 | 13.89 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 11.71 | 11.54 | 14.12 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ HDDs | 318 | 317 | 298 | 312 | 337 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 11 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 329 | 328 | 305 | 321 | 344 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.4 | 109.0 | 109.3 | 102.7 | 99.2 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.3 | N/A | 8.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 117.7 | 117.7 | 117.6 | N/A | 107.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | N/A | 5.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.3 | 18.4 | 18.3 | 13.9 | 12.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 11.6 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 11.0 |
U.S. Residential | 17.2 | 16.2 | 17.7 | 16.4 | 15.7 |
U.S. Power Plant | 30.8 | 32.8 | 30.9 | 31.9 | 30.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 24.1 | 23.6 | 23.9 | 23.8 | 24.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 91.7 | 91.4 | 92.1 | 90.8 | 89.7 |
Total U.S. Demand | 118.9 | 118.8 | 119.7 | N/A | 110.5 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 88 | 89 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 85 | 86 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 86 | 87 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 21 | Week ended Nov 14 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 12 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
39 | 37 | 42 | 41 | 38 | |
Coal | 17 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.97 | 3.94 | 2.10 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 3.66 | 3.66 | 1.99 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 4.17 | 4.16 | 3.29 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 3.58 | 3.55 | 1.83 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.79 | 3.69 | 1.98 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 4.72 | 4.79 | 2.70 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 4.00 | 4.12 | 2.55 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.76 | 1.91 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 67.55 | 79.14 | 44.71 | 47.35 | 48.44 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 63.71 | 71.44 | 35.99 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 45.69 | 55.21 | 37.13 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 39.90 | 46.50 | 29.23 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 44.70 | 47.39 | 30.01 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New YorkEditing by Nick Zieminski)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
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