Ex-OBR chiefs: Reeves was warned about productivity downgrade

cityam11-25

Rachel Reeves left herself with a small level of headroom. Justin Tallis/PA Wire Chancellor Rachel Reeves was warned about costly productivity downgrades and should have left a bigger fiscal headroom ...

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Justin Tallis/PA Wire Chancellor Rachel Reeves was warned about costly productivity downgrades and should have left a bigger fiscal headroom ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cityam.com/ex-obr-chiefs-reeves-was-warned-about-productivity-downgrade/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cityam_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ex-OBR chiefs: Reeves was warned about productivity downgrade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEx-OBR chiefs: Reeves was warned about productivity downgrade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-25 13:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cityam.com/ex-obr-chiefs-reeves-was-warned-about-productivity-downgrade/><strong>cityam</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Rachel Reeves left herself with a small level of headroom. Justin Tallis/PA Wire Chancellor Rachel Reeves was warned about costly productivity downgrades and should have left a bigger fiscal headroom ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cityam.com/ex-obr-chiefs-reeves-was-warned-about-productivity-downgrade/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4087","symbol_name":"商业印刷","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.cityam.com/ex-obr-chiefs-reeves-was-warned-about-productivity-downgrade/","article_id":"2586244980","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/01K970GH1Z8XT2041YTJ3WP07N_0d3d57.jpg?w=824&h=463&crop=1"],"rights":{"source":"cityam_highlight","url":"https://www.cityam.com/ex-obr-chiefs-reeves-was-warned-about-productivity-downgrade/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586244980","pubTimestamp":1764048660,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"cityam_highlight","name":"cityam"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Rachel Reeves left herself with a small level of headroom. Justin Tallis/PA Wire Chancellor Rachel Reeves was warned about costly productivity downgrades and should have left a bigger fiscal headroom at the Spring Statement, former Office for Budget Responsibility  officials have said.Speaking to City AM, a number of leading economists raised questions around Reeves’ statements suggesting an OBR review of productivity trend forecasts has forced her to hike taxes and seek spending cuts at this year’s Budget.Sir Charlie Bean, who sat on the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee  between 2017 and late 2021, said expected productivity downgrades, which are believed to cost the Treasury some 20bn, should not have come as a surprise to Reeves given repeated warnings about the uncertainty around previous predictions.“The government cannot claim that this is something that’s come out of the blue,” Bean, who was also formerly the Bank of England’s chief economist, said.But he added that there w","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"cityam.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4087":"商业印刷","LU2065732104.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL SMALL CAP EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BRC":"布雷迪"},"translate_title":"前OBR负责人：里维斯收到有关生产力降级的警告","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BRC":1},"content_text":"Rachel Reeves left herself with a small level of headroom. Justin Tallis/PA Wire Chancellor Rachel Reeves was warned about costly productivity downgrades and should have left a bigger fiscal headroom at the Spring Statement, former Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) officials have said. Speaking to City AM, a number of leading economists raised questions around Reeves’ statements suggesting an OBR review of productivity trend forecasts has forced her to hike taxes and seek spending cuts at this year’s Budget. Sir Charlie Bean, who sat on the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) between 2017 and late 2021, said expected productivity downgrades, which are believed to cost the Treasury some £20bn, should not have come as a surprise to Reeves given repeated warnings about the uncertainty around previous predictions. “The government cannot claim that this is something that’s come out of the blue,” Bean, who was also formerly the Bank of England’s chief economist, said.\n\n“This is not an unusual forecast re-evaluation, given what’s happened and also where other forecasters are. \n\n\n\n\n\n\nNews Updates\nStay ahead with our three daily briefings delivering all the key market moves, top business and political stories, and incisive analysis straight to your inbox.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n“The real issue here, to be honest, is that Rachel Reeves was unwise to leave herself such a small amount of fiscal headroom, knowing the substantial range of uncertainty around the forecast.“You’re asking for trouble if you leave yourself a small margin of error.”Bean’s comments are at odds with statements made by the Chancellor and other government ministers over the last few months who, along with union bosses, have questioned why the OBR had chosen to conduct its supply side review. \n\nReeves failed to build sufficient headroomReeves has faced intense scrutiny for pointing the finger at Brexit and low capital expenditure under the previous Conservative government when speaking about the downgrade, though she has also committed the government to beating “gloomy” forecasts by focusing on growth. Reeves has also indicated that she will build a larger fiscal headroom this year, with analysts predicting a buffer of around £15bn. Just hours after the Spring Statement this year, OBR chair Richard Hughes said there were extra “risks” attached to its central forecasts on productivity. He also presented a number of possible scenarios that could take out her “tiny” £9.9bn headroom, the third smallest left by any Chancellor since the independent body’s creation in 2010. \nAndy King, a former OBR committee official who spent ten years at the body until 2023, conceded it was “challenging” for the Chancellor to face productivity downgrades after the Spending Review had already fixed departmental budgets for the next four years, making it harder for Reeves to make cuts. \n\nBut he added that there was “no good time” for downgrades, with the timing of this year’s revision making sense given the difficulty of reviewing OBR models straight after economic shocks, such as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and around last year’s General Election.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2586244980","isCrawlerRequest":true}