Methanex Maintained at Buy at TPH Following December North America Pricing; Price Target at US$44.00

MT Newswires Live11-25

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Monday reiterated its buy rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) with a US$44.00 price target after the company released December prices for its North American methanol customers.

"Slightly positive. This weekend, MEOH rolled over its North American methanol contract at $802/tonne for Dec'25, its third straight rollover since increasing it from the $778/tonne price back in Sep. This remains the highest price since $832/tonne in May'25. This continues the slight positive trend of contract methanol prices holding in better than the spot market. US spot methanol prices are down -$14/tonne (-5%) m/m so far in Nov and -$8/tonne (-2%) q/q for Q4'25. The $802/tonne Dec'25 NAM contract price puts Q4'25 up +$18/tonne (+2%) q/q, a divergence from the directionally weaker spot market. Assuming flat China and Asia Pacific prices for Dec'25, which have not yet been announced, this puts the Q4'24 global average at $554/tonne, flat q/q. While the global methanol markets appear to be amply supplied, Q4 tends to carry the largest supply shock risks due ton reallocation of local gas supplies in regions like Iran. At this point, we haven't seen a lot of specific news on supply shocks, though Iranian methanol market news tends to be sparse. Maintain Buy on MEOH," analyst Matthew Blair wrote.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

Price: 48.87, Change: -0.57, Percent Change: -1.15

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This weekend, MEOH rolled over its North American methanol contract at $802/tonne for Dec'25, its third straight rollover since increasing it from the $778/tonne price back in Sep. This remains the highest price since $832/tonne in May'25. This continues the slight positive trend of contract methanol prices holding in better than the spot market. US spot methanol prices are down -$14/tonne (-5%) m/m so far in Nov and -$8/tonne (-2%) q/q for Q4'25. The $802/tonne Dec'25 NAM contract price puts Q4'25 up +$18/tonne (+2%) q/q, a divergence from the directionally weaker spot market. Assuming flat China and Asia Pacific prices for Dec'25, which have not yet been announced, this puts the Q4'24 global average at $554/tonne, flat q/q. While the global methanol markets appear to be amply supplied, Q4 tends to carry the largest supply shock risks due ton reallocation of local gas supplies in regions like Iran. 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