Options Corner: Why Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky's Billionaire Bounce Sets The Stage For A Bullish ABNB Trade

Benzinga_recent_news11-29

While Airbnb Inc (NASDAQ:ABNB) CEO Brian Chesky may rank among the world's richest people, that status took a bit of a beating recently. Much of his net worth — standing at around $10 billion — is ...

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Much of his net worth — standing at around $10 billion — is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/11/49121632/airbnb-abnb-stock-fed-rate-cut-sentiment-pivot\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4566","symbol_name":"资本集团","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/11/49121632/airbnb-abnb-stock-fed-rate-cut-sentiment-pivot","article_id":"2587973424","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2025/11/28/Airbnbs-Brian-Chesky-Says-Current-AI-Is-.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/11/49121632/airbnb-abnb-stock-fed-rate-cut-sentiment-pivot","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2587973424","pubTimestamp":1764355800,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"While Airbnb has struggled in the trailing month, a potentially dovish Fed may have given a sentiment lifeline to ABNB stock.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU1201861165.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity PA SGD","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","BK4588":"碎股","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","LU0648000940.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA SGD","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0130517989.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES US VALUE EQUITY \"R\" INC","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0130518102.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES GLOBAL EQUITY \"R\" INC","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0477156797.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES GLOBAL EQUITY \"RE\" (USD) ACC","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU0477156953.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES US VALUE EQUITY \"RE\" (USD) ACC","ABNB":"爱彼迎","SSI":"Stage Stores Inc","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC"},"translate_title":"期权角：为什么爱彼迎首席执行官Brian Chesky的亿万富翁反弹为看涨ABNB交易奠定了基础","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ABNB":1.5,"SSI":1.5},"content_text":"While Airbnb Inc (NASDAQ:ABNB) CEO Brian Chesky may rank among the world's richest people, that status took a bit of a beating recently. Much of his net worth — standing at around $10 billion — is largely tied to his stake in ABNB stock. Of course, the equity took a hit recently, declining about 8% in the trailing month. Nevertheless, underlying sentiment may have received a critical lifeline.\nSpecifically, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have realigned their interest rate outlooks, with the financial giants now forecasting the Federal Reserve will deliver a quarter-point cut after its Dec. 9-10 meeting. What's more, traders are now pricing in a probability of 84.7% that the central bank will go through with the accommodative move. This is essentially a 180 within a matter of days, when the odds of a rate cut were as low as 25%.\nFundamentally, reduced cost of borrowing should filter across the economy. It's not just about the relief that individual consumers will feel. Enterprises will have more motivation to engage in growth-related ventures and other corporate investments due to the implied erosion of dollar value over time. In theory, business activity should improve — all other things being equal — eventually leading to more discretionary spending.\nOf course, not all things are equal, with the economy and soft jobs market facing significant challenges. As if to emphasize the point, options sentiment in the near term has appeared poor. However, with the latest monetary policy pivot — or at least the anticipation of such — we're looking for a quick reversal in ABNB stock.\nGiven its statistical trajectory following extended periods of downturn, Airbnb could present a contrarian opportunity.\nWhile no one really knows whether the Fed's potential dovish stance will help engineer a substantive economic recovery, in the options business, the question tends to be a moot point. Generally speaking, when we're talking about options trading — such as the use of vertical spreads — we're aiming to lever up potential rewards over a short period of time.\nSince we're not looking that far ahead, we don't need Nostradamus-like prescience. Instead, we need to calculate probability density, a concept that refers to the tendency of a stock to cluster at certain price levels.\nTo generate such an advanced statistic, we need to engage in reification and iteration. First, we treat probability not as an abstract concept but as a physical object. In this manner, we can use non-linear math and algorithms to determine where the support beam or stud is located. The idea is that we peg our profitability triggers on areas where probabilistic support is strongest (i.e. where prices tend to cluster).\nHowever, reification in the equities market doesn't come naturally since a security represents a singular journey across time. Therefore, we need to implement iteration — breaking apart price action into segments. The idea is that, over many trials, patterns (densities) will appear. Moreover, different patterns may materialize from different market stimuli.\nEssentially, by finding the difference between the probability density that the market expects versus what may actually happen based on the current signal, we can potentially uncover an informational arbitrage.\nUnder aggregate or baseline conditions, ABNB stock over the next 10 weeks would be expected to mostly range between $115.50 and $119 (assuming an anchor price of $117.46). Price clustering would be expected to occur at about $117.25.\nHowever, in the trailing 10 weeks, ABNB stock has been operating under a distributive 4-6-D formation: four up weeks and six down weeks, with an overall downward slope. Under this specific setup, the forward 10-week returns would likely range between $111 and $139, with price clustering predominant at $127.\nWith an 8.32% positive variance between the two distributions, this is a sizable informational arbitrage.\nAlthough it's impossible to say with absolute certainty what the market is thinking, it seems rather obvious that the underlying liquidity providers view the bullish case for ABNB stock with skepticism. As such, I think the most compelling idea at this moment is the 120/125 bull call spread expiring Jan. 16, 2026.\nThe above trade involves two simultaneous transactions: buy the $120 call and sell the $125 call, for a net debit paid of $209 (the most that can be lost). Should ABNB stock rise through the second-leg strike ($125) at expiration, the maximum profit clocks in at $291, a payout of over 139%. Breakeven comes in at $122.09, which should be a contextually realistic target.\nThose who really want to try their luck may consider the 125/130 bull spread, also expiring Jan. 16. It's ambitious because of the $130 higher-leg strike. However, this is still near the meat of the probabilistic curve. As well, the breakeven price lands at $126.25.\nMost temptingly, the max payout stands at a robust 300%. Again, it's super-risky but it's also something to think about.\nThe opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. 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