FedEx Earnings Seen Topping Consensus as Rally Heightens Stakes, Morgan Stanley Says

MT Newswires Live12-03

FedEx (FDX) is expected to deliver a modest earnings beat in fiscal Q2 results, though its 20% stock rally since the last report has raised expectations, Morgan Stanley said Tuesday in a report.

Morgan Stanley forecasts adjusted earnings of $4.07 a share, slightly above the $4.03 consensus estimate compiled by FactSet and in line with management's recent guidance. Results are scheduled for Dec. 18.

The upside for FedEx is driven by the Express division, aided by strong domestic volumes and peak-season demand, including Amazon's "big & bulky" shipments, the report said.

International weakness remains, with export volumes down about 4% from a year earlier after changes to US import duty rules, Morgan Stanley said. Express margins are projected to improve sequentially but stay below last year's levels, the report said.

Morgan Stanley projects 2026 earnings of about $15 a share, well under the $25 some investors expect, citing competitive pressures, the planned spinoff of the less-than-truckload freight business, tariffs and global trade uncertainty. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect $18.17.

Morgan Stanley maintained its underweight rating on FedEx stock with a price target of $200.

FedEx shares fell 1.3% in recent Tuesday trading.

Price: 269.82, Change: -3.52, Percent Change: -1.29

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