The latest Market Talks covering the Auto and Transport sector. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
1337 GMT - Porsche used an investor presentation last weekend to highlight that it is setting the stage for a meaningful recovery, Citi analysts write. Citi believes that Porsche's earnings are now at trough, a year later than the bank originally hoped, with more than 3 billion euros in exceptional charges, product plans amended and assets written off, and wholesale volumes down 50,000 units on year to around 260,000. Product mix, pricing power, cost reductions and new model launches through 2028 should allow Porsche to recover to at least the middle of its 10%-15% return on sales target. "We think such a stable 4-year recovery would see a meaningful rerating of the current Porsche valuation." Citi rates Porsche at buy with a 55 euros target price. Shares rise 0.9% to 44.32 euros. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)
1006 GMT - Renault is likely entering a phase where its margins could shrink back toward historical levels, UBS analyst David Lesne writes. Declining order book, deteriorating pricing, rising costs, and higher dealer inventories suggests a tougher 2026 ahead, Lesne adds. Near-term catalysts include full-year results in February, and an investor day in March during which UBS expects a more cautious tone. Over the medium term, the bank now models EBIT margin normalizing toward historical levels of 3%-4%, compared to consensus estimating stable levels versus 2025 for the foreseeable future. Renault's 2025 EBIT margin guidance stands at 6.5%. UBS downgrades Renault to sell from neutral and lowers its price target to 28 euros from 38 euros. Shares fall 0.5% to 34.46 euros. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)
0938 GMT - Stellantis could make its comeback in North America next year, UBS analyst Patrick Hummel writes. The bank expects the company to see a 3 billion-euro swing in adjusted operating income in 2026, fueled by regaining market share, improving mix on relaxed U.S. emission standards and cost cutting. UBS raises its 2026 adjusted operating income estimate by 1.2 billion euros to 5.4 billion euros, equating to a 3.3% margin. "We think the U.S. turnaround prevails as share price driver, despite headwinds in Europe and...growing Chinese competition." After two years of heavy cash burn, UBS expects industrial free cash flow to be a small positive in 2026. UBS upgrades Stellantis stock to buy from neutral and raises its price target to 12 euros from 8.30 euros. Shares rise 7.5% to 9.81 euros. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)
0928 GMT - German carmakers' China earnings remain under pressure, Citi analysts write. With significant China overcapacity, dynamic new model and technology cycles, and low supply chain costs, Chinese manufacturers have undercut EU counterparts and led to sharp falls in European brands' market share and profitability in China. If their China EBIT falls to zero, BMW and Mercedes-Benz have the biggest downside risk to group EBIT in 2026, followed by Volkswagen. Volkswagen can now develop, test, and locally manufacture cars in China. It will soon launch new VW branded cars there which were developed in-country at 40%-50% lower cost than existing models. It is looking at supplying these VWs in Southeast Asia and Middle East markets. "Can VW become a China automotive cost winner, rather than loser?," Citi asks. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)
0823 GMT - Asian equities are likely to supported by solid earnings next year, according to BofA analysts in a research note. BofA expects MSCI Asia Pacific Index to deliver high single-digit return in 2026, driven mainly by robust earnings growth, they say. The growth is supported by fading tariff uncertainty, central-bank easing and a continued upswing in the global growth cycle, they note. Among all sectors, tech hardware and semiconductors, e-commerce and the auto industry are expected to lead earnings growth next year. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0814 GMT - Robotaxi companies that can adeptly navigate capital markets and local policy landscapes are likely to be the winners in scaling up, says Macquarie analyst Eugene Hsiao in a note. Currently, L4 fully autonomous robotaxi operators like Waymo, Tesla, Baidu, Pony AI and WeRide are in a race to commercialize new business models alongside partners that include major tech firms, ride-hailing platforms Uber and Didi, as well as automakers like Geely. Speed of execution is critical in sustaining their first-mover advantage and creating lasting network effects, he says. Instead of technology, the analyst sees fundraising, regulatory acceptance and partnerships as the core bottlenecks. Over the next two to three years, L2 autonomous-driving-assistance players are likely to move aggressively into the L4 space and create new alternatives, he says. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0811 GMT - China's robotaxi fleet size could exceed 250,000 units by the end of 2030, says Macquarie's Eugene Hsiao in a note. The percentage of robotaxis compared with the total mobility market would remain less than 5%, he says, noting there's an accelerated ramp up expected between 2030 to 2035, when robotaxis make up more than 30% of the mobility market. Robotaxis should rapidly gain market share from labor arbitrage effects, he says. 2026 is set to be the first year to see a significant increase in robotaxi availability in major cities in China, like Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Beijing, he adds. Next year will also likely be a turning point for robotaxi growth within Asia, he says.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 03, 2025 12:20 ET (17:20 GMT)
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