Vertex Pharmaceuticals' (VRTX) kidney drug candidates Pove and Inaxaplin to significantly boost long-term revenue and profit growth if successful in upcoming phase 3 trials, Morgan Stanley said in a note Wednesday.
Late-stage trial data for both treatments is expected in 2026, and could help diversify Vertex's portfolio beyond cystic fibrosis, the investment firm said.
Morgan Stanley said it projects a 10-year compound annual growth rate of 8% for revenue and 10% for earnings per share from 2025 to 2035, driven by contributions from the kidney pipeline.
Pove's 2035 risk-adjusted sales estimate in IgAN chronic kidney disease was raised to $3.5 billion from $1.3 billion, with its success probability increased to 75% from 70%, according to the note.
Inaxaplin's estimate for treating APOL1-mediated kidney disease was increased to $2.6 billion from $1.2 billion, with the probability of success unchanged at 50% due to limited phase 2 data, the note added.
Morgan Stanley also maintained its view on Journavx, forecasting chronic pain data from phase 3 trials in late 2026 or early 2027 with a 60% chance of success.
Vertex was upgraded to overweight from equal weight by Morgan Stanley with a raised price target of $516, up from $438.
Shares of the company were up about 4.9% in recent trading.
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