MW How Google could follow Nvidia to become the next $5 trillion company
By Christine Ji
One analyst predicts that Google will steal market share from Nvidia and emerge as the dominant survivor of any future dot-com-style crash
Alphabet is reportedly aiming to capture as much as 10% of Nvidia's annual revenue with its custom silicon business.
Alphabet is giving the chip king Nvidia a run for its money.
Artificial-intelligence momentum has sent shares of Alphabet $(GOOGL)$ $(GOOG)$ soaring nearly 70% in 2025, and Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak believes the rally has plenty more in store.
In a Friday note, Wlodarczak raised his price target for Alphabet to $400 from $350, one of the highest among Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet. At that level, Google would be valued at almost $5 trillion by market capitalization, a benchmark first surpassed by Nvidia (NVDA) at the end of October. Google currently has a $3.9 trillion market cap.
"Google appears to be the best positioned of its peers to monetize AI investment internally and externally," Wlodarczak wrote, citing the success of Gemini, the core search business and the custom silicon business.
Going forward, Google's tensor processing units could become a "material driver of value" as Google sells its chips to third parties, Wlodarczak emphasized. In October, Anthropic struck an agreement with Google to access up to 1 million TPUs. Last week, a report from The Information suggested that Meta Platforms (META) is in talks to spend billions on Google's chips. According to the report, Google Cloud executives said that the company's TPU business could generate up to 10% of the annual revenue that Nvidia does. Wlodarczak believes Google's semiconductor advancements could take share from Nvidia and drive down the cost of its chips.
In an X post last week, Nvidia praised Google's chips but asserted that its own products remained superior.
Also read: Nvidia is going out of its way to rebut online criticism. Is this savvy PR or adding fuel to the fire?
Google's TPU business, combined with its AI applications, should allow the company to expand its cloud-computing business and gain market share, Wlodarczak added. He expects Google to grow revenue at 11% annually for the next five years, even if its search business slows down.
Additionally, Google could come out as the biggest winner if concerns about an AI bubble boil over. If OpenAI fails to sufficiently monetize and scales back its spending, "it is likely to temporarily get pretty ugly for AI stocks and the market in general," Wlodarczak wrote, leading to a correction similar to the dot-com bubble. However, Wlodarczak characterized such a scenario as "a healthy weeding out process leaving fewer much more dominant competitors, with [Google] leading the way."
Even without a dramatic market crash, Google is already chipping away at OpenAI's lead in the chatbot market. Wlodarczak expects Google's Gemini to continue gaining share from ChatGPT, "exacerbated by OpenAI's move to offer advertising creating a less attractive experience."
Read on: These two 'Magnificent Seven' stocks could be the strongest survivors of an AI apocalypse
-Christine Ji
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December 05, 2025 09:57 ET (14:57 GMT)
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