By Dow Jones Newswires staff
The Federal Reserve's decision will take center stage in the coming week, with the central bank widely expected to cut interest rates after recent weak U.S. jobs data.
Central bank decisions in Canada, Australia and Switzerland will also be watched, as well as remarks from the Bank of Japan as bond markets assess when it will next hike interest rates.
In Asia, exports figures from China and Taiwan are in the spotlight as economists look for the impact of Beijing's truce with Washington to have lifted trade.
U.S.
The Fed announces a decision on Wednesday, where markets anticipate a third consecutive 25 basis-point rate cut. This follows recent data which pointed to a very weak U.S. labor market, even as potential concerns about inflation remain.
"Momentum is now firmly behind a third 25 basis-point easing for the year," ING economist James Knightley said in a note.
"While there is some nervousness about the potential for inflation to remain elevated due to tariff-induced price hikes, the news on the jobs market is increasingly concerning."
Investors will also pay close attention to the Fed's new rate forecasts as they look to gauge how fast and how far interest rates will fall next year. U.S. money markets currently price in two to three additional rate cuts in 2026, LSEG data show.
Economic data during the week will give investors further insight into the health of U.S. jobs data, particularly as key data were delayed during the recent government shutdown.
Unit labor costs figures for the third quarter are due Tuesday and the employment cost index on Wednesday, followed by weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Job openings figures for October are also due Tuesday. Trade data for September are scheduled for Thursday.
The Treasury will auction $58 billion in three-year notes on Monday, $39 billion in 10-year notes on Tuesday and $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.
Canada
The Bank of Canada announces a decision Wednesday and is widely expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, particularly after recent solid economic data.
Strong Canadian jobs data for November, combined with much stronger third-quarter gross domestic product figures, "quashes any lingering prospect" of a near-term Bank of Canada rate cut, said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, in a note.
Analysts at Citi, however, said weak underlying economic trends could potentially see the central bank lower rates further in 2026, they said.
Canadian trade data for September are due Thursday.
Latin America
Brazil's central bank announces a rate decision on Wednesday.
At its most recent meeting last month, the central bank left its benchmark Selic rate at 15% and indicated it could remain at this level for some time.
Capital Economics expects that the central bank could start reducing rates in January as the economy slows, emerging markets economist Kimberley Sperrfechter said in a note.
Brazilian inflation data for November are released ahead of the decision on Wednesday. Mexico releases November inflation figures on Tuesday.
Eurozone
The eurozone's data calendar for the coming week will be light. Italian industrial production data for October are due Wednesday. Final CPI data for November are due Friday from Germany, France and Spain.
Looking back on 2025, Citi analysts praise Europe's economic resilience and expect it to continue.
"Resilience was the keyword in 2025 for European growth," Citi economists say in a note. "A very gradual improvement in eurozone growth is underway and we expect it to continue in 2026-27 as headwinds keep receding and fiscal support (mostly in Germany) slowly kicks in."
Austria will hold a bond auction on Tuesday, and Italy will do so on Thursday.
U.K.
U.K. gross domestic product data for October are released Friday as investors increasingly expect that the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates at its Dec. 18 meeting, particularly with the U.K. budget now out of the way.
"We are forecasting that GDP rose by 0.2% in October, consistent with our view that the economy will have expanded by close to 1.5% over 2025 as a whole," Investec economist Philip Shaw said in a note.
Industrial production and trade figures for October are also due Friday, while the RICS house-price survey for November is due Thursday.
The U.K. plans to sell gilts maturing in June 2032 by programmatic tender on Tuesday, followed by an auction of October 2035 gilts on Wednesday.
Scandinavia
Norway releases inflation data for November on Wednesday. Swedish final November inflation data are due Thursday, followed by Swedish labor-market data Friday.
Sweden will auction inflation-linked bonds on Thursday. Norway is scheduled to release borrowing plans for 2026 on Friday.
Switzerland
The Swiss National Bank announces a policy decision on Thursday and is widely expected to keep interest rates at zero percent, especially given its reluctance to resort to negative rates.
"The latest inflation and GDP growth data were both weak. However, we expect the SNB to forecast inflation to rise again and continued GDP growth in 2026, so a rate cut will likely not be required, particularly as the bar to a negative policy rate is high," Nomura analysts said in a note.
A Swiss government-bond auction is scheduled for Wednesday.
Turkey
Turkey's central bank announces a rate decision on Thursday, where it is expected to further reduce its one-week repo rate from the current level of 39.5%.
ING expects a "measured" 100 basis-point reduction amid some risks to inflation, although a bigger reduction is possible, analyst Muhammet Mercan said in a note.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates on hold on Tuesday, when the outcome of a two-day policy meeting is made known.
But traders' focus will be on the wording of the statement from the policy-setting board, with many economists expecting a hawkish tilt to emerge after a run of strong demand and inflation indicators.
Government bond yields rose this week amid speculation that economists at major banks might soon forecast an RBA interest-rate increase in February.
Household spending data, monthly inflation numbers and private demand data have all been strong, fueling talk that the next move in interest rates will be upward.
The RBA's governor, Michele Bullock, will hold a press conference after the policy meeting, where she is certain to be grilled about the need for hawkish guidance given the rise in inflation pressures.
Also Tuesday, the release of the National Australia Bank's business survey for November will be closely watched given it will provide a measure of capacity utilization across the economy.
The RBA has already warned that capacity constraints are becoming a big factor for the outlook for inflation interest rates.
On Thursday, November employment data will cap off a big week for bond traders. If unemployment falls from the current 4.3%, calls for a hike in interest rates in the first half of next year will flood in.
Japan
With a closely-watched policy meeting approaching, investors will pay attention to Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda's remarks at a Financial Times event on Tuesday. The governor's recent comments have fueled expectations for a December interest-rate increase.
Revised government data due Monday is likely to confirm that the Japanese economy contracted for the first time in six quarters during the July-September period.
Economists polled by data provider Quick expect the revised data to show that real gross domestic product shrank 0.5% from the previous quarter. That compares with the 0.4% fall in the preliminary data.
Current-account balance data for October and bank lending figures for November are also due on Monday.
Focus will also be on bond-market action after yields on Japanese government bonds touched several highs recently.
The Ministry of Finance is scheduled to sell five- and 20-year Japanese government bonds on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. On Wednesday, the BOJ is slated to purchase JGBs with maturity of one-to-three, five-to-10 and more-than-25 years.
China
A sizable economic data slate lies ahead for China, featuring trade and inflation figures for November that come as tariff tensions have cooled but worries about their economic impact persist.
A rebound in exports in the month following the trade truce struck with the U.S. could soothe those concerns, but on the flipside could also weaken the case for the economic stimulus that many would like to see.
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect Monday's data to show that exports swung to 3.4% growth from October's contraction. Import growth is projected to have strengthened too, more than doubling to 2.5% on year.
Analysts broadly expect to see some positive impact from the China-U.S. detente, but ING economists note that unfavorable base effects could keep trade growth modest.
HSBC's economics team flags a low base of comparison and measures to boost domestic demand as possible tailwinds for imports.
On Wednesday, focus turns to inflation figures as China's economy remains beset by deflationary woes.
Economists look for signs of mild improvement in November, in part thanks to a favorable comparison point a year earlier.
DBS chief economist Taimur Baig also sees scope for Beijing's crackdown on excess price competition to have helped factory-gate and consumer prices.
Markets will also watch for money-supply and credit data for November.
Both new corporate and household medium-to-long-term loans are likely to decline amid cautious borrowing sentiment and early repayments, said DBS's Baig. Credit demand remains weak, and outstanding loan growth has stayed at a two-decade low, he said.
Philippines
The Philippines central bank makes its rate decision Thursday, where it could deliver a fifth consecutive cut as inflation stays benign and growth soft.
The Southeast Asian country is facing mounting headwinds from a domestic corruption scandal involving the alleged misuse of public funds for state flood-management initiatives.
Economic growth slowed to a more than four-year low in the third quarter, while inflation undershot the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas's 2025 inflation target of 2% to 4% for a ninth straight month in November.
"Recent GDP numbers raise concerns that soft government spending could become a longer-term drag, weighing not only on fiscal outlays but also on business and private-sector sentiment," ING's Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song wrote in a note.
The BSP looks poised to lower its policy rate, with an expected additional cut in the first quarter of next year, as governance-related issues weigh on growth amid benign inflation, ANZ Research economists said in a report.
At its meeting in October, the BSP cut its policy rate unexpectedly, as it flagged a weaker growth outlook.
India
India's inflation data on Friday will likely show that price pressures remain at multi-decade lows, reinforcing the central bank's decision to cut interest rates at its final meeting of the year.
The main drag will likely continue to come from food prices, the ANZ Research team said. While headline inflation could tick up from the nadir reached in October, household goods and services prices likely continued to decline due to GST rate cuts, they wrote.
Inflation is likely to average just below 2% for the current fiscal year, HSBC economists said. Only a third of the impact of GST tax cuts has fed through to inflation, signaling room for further cooling ahead, they said.
Core inflation is also easing but is more long-lasting than before, which could influence monetary policy, they added.
Taiwan
Taiwan is set to release its trade data for November on Tuesday, which will probably show that exports continued their run of torrid growth.
The island's economy has been supported by resilient export growth through the year, as frontloading to get ahead of tariffs combined with the AI boom to keep its shipments in high demand.
"AI-related demand for GPUs, graphics cards, and servers-alongside year-end seasonal demand for new consumer electronics-is likely to continue supporting export momentum," DBS economists said.
Taiwan's U.S.-bound shipments should also get a lift from the delay in semiconductor tariffs.
That said, non-tech traditional industries will likely continue to face headwinds, the DBS team expects. "The 20% U.S. reciprocal tariff on Taiwan-higher than that applied to Japan and South Korea-keeps Taiwanese manufacturers in these sectors at a competitive disadvantage."
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 05, 2025 11:07 ET (16:07 GMT)
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