RBA rate cuts are off the table: here's why

Switzer12-08

Australia’s economy grew by a softer-than-expected 0.4% in the September quarter, slowing from 0.6% growth in the June quarter. It confirms the recovery is tracking forward but without strong momentum...

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It confirms the recovery is tracking forward but without strong momentum...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/stella-huangfu/rba-rate-cuts-are-off-the-table-heres-why/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"switzer_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>RBA rate cuts are off the table: here's why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRBA rate cuts are off the table: here's why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-08 06:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/stella-huangfu/rba-rate-cuts-are-off-the-table-heres-why/><strong>Switzer</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Australia’s economy grew by a softer-than-expected 0.4% in the September quarter, slowing from 0.6% growth in the June quarter. It confirms the recovery is tracking forward but without strong momentum...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/stella-huangfu/rba-rate-cuts-are-off-the-table-heres-why/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GDP","symbol_name":"古德里奇","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/stella-huangfu/rba-rate-cuts-are-off-the-table-heres-why/","article_id":"2589180916","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://switzer.com.au/wp-content/uploads/michelle-bullock-rba-switzer.jpg"],"rights":{"source":"switzer_stock","url":"https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/stella-huangfu/rba-rate-cuts-are-off-the-table-heres-why/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2589180916","pubTimestamp":1765146197,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"switzer_stock","name":"Switzer"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Australia’s economy grew by a softer-than-expected 0.4% in the September quarter, slowing from 0.6% growth in the June quarter. It confirms the recovery is tracking forward but without strong momentum. It does mean, however, that rate cuts are off the table.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"switzer.com.au","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GDP":"古德里奇","BK4213":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产"},"translate_title":"澳大利亚央行降息已不可能：原因如下","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GDP":1},"content_text":"Australia’s economy grew by a softer-than-expected 0.4% in the September quarter, slowing from 0.6% growth in the June quarter. It confirms the recovery is tracking forward but without strong momentum.\nStill, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth was at a two-year high of 2.1%. That’s just above the Reserve Bank’s estimate of long-term trend growth of 2.0%.\nThe September quarter national accounts was the final major data release before the Reserve Bank’s meeting on 8–9 December.\nThe GDP result is steady enough to reassure the Reserve Bank the economy is not slipping backwards, while recent inflation data show domestic price pressures — especially in services — remain elevated. Together, the signals point clearly to a hold on interest rates next week.\nAll four major banks expect rates to remain on hold for many months, while financial markets on Wednesday were pricing in an 85% chance of a rate rise next year.\nAcross-the-board strength, led by IT\nA key feature of the September quarter is the breadth of domestic growth.\nIn earlier quarters, much of the expansion came from the public sector — particularly government consumption and infrastructure spending — while private demand was subdued. This quarter marks a clear shift: private demand was the main driver, led by a strong lift in business investment, steady household consumption and continued public investment.\nDomestic final demand rose solidly, with contributions from all major components — signalling improving confidence among both businesses and households and a more balanced base for growth than we saw earlier in the year.\nPrivate investment led the gains, rising 2.9% – the strongest quarterly increase since March 2021.\nBusiness investment in machinery and equipment jumped 7.6%, boosted by major data-centre projects in New South Wales and Victoria. IT-related machinery investment hit a record A$2.8 billion, double the June quarter, and aviation-related purchases also jumped. The Bureau of Statistics said in a statement:\nThe rise in machinery and equipment investment reflects the ongoing expansions of data centres. This is likely due to firms looking to support growth in artificial intelligence and cloud computing capabilities.\nHousehold consumption rose 0.5%, but this was driven more by spending on essentials rather than discretionary items. A cold winter, reduced government rebates and a harsh flu season lifted demand for utilities and for health services.\nPublic investment grew 3.0%, after three quarterly declines. State and local public corporations led the rise through renewable-energy and water-infrastructure projects.\nCoal exports are up\nExternal conditions weakened this quarter as imports grew faster than exports.\nGoods exports rose 1.3%, helped by a rebound in coal shipments and strong overseas demand for beef and citrus. Services exports were flat, as a fall in spending by overseas students offset a modest recovery in short-term tourism from China, Japan and South Korea.\nGoods imports rose 2.1%, driven by demand for intermediate goods — especially diesel — and capital goods, mainly the data-centre-related equipment.\nCompanies drew down on inventories during the quarter, which acts as a drag on growth.\nHouseholds are saving more\nHouseholds remain central to the outlook. They are on firmer financial footing but still spending cautiously. The household saving ratio rose from 6.0% to 6.4%, helped by higher compensation of employees.\nEconomic growth per person (known as GDP per capita) was flat this quarter, but up 0.4% over the year. After several negative quarters, living standards appear to have stopped falling, though improvements remain modest.\nOverall, households are in better shape financially but remain hesitant — a pattern that supports stability, not a consumption-led surge.\nA steady result, but not enough to shift the rate outlook\nSome parts of this quarter’s outcome — including the lift in machinery and aviation-related spending — are unlikely to be repeated.\nFor the interest rate outlook, however, the key issue remains inflation. Price pressures are still above the Reserve Bank’s target band, and services inflation has been slower to ease than anticipated. The Reserve Bank now expects a more gradual return to the 2–3% target band.\nAfter three rate cuts earlier this year — the most recent in August — markets were expecting at least one more rate cut. That view has shifted. Sticky services inflation and a slower forecast decline mean expectations of further cuts have faded.\nA steadier footing, but risks remain\nThe September quarter shows an economy on a steady, though still moderate, footing. Domestic demand is broad-based, investment is strong, and households have more income support — even if they remain cautious.\nBut this is not yet a turning point. Inflation is still above target. As Australia enters 2026, the Reserve Bank remains firmly on hold — but alert to the possibility that, if inflation stays above 3%, the next adjustment may need to be upward rather than downward.\nStella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney\nThis article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2589180916","isCrawlerRequest":true}