Dollar General Shows Discount Retail Is Thriving In Tough Economy

Benzinga_recent_news12-08

Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) delivered a strong third-quarter earnings beat and lifted its full-year outlook, signaling improving profitability and steady demand as budget-conscious shoppers across ...

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(NYSE:DG) delivered a strong third-quarter earnings beat and lifted its full-year outlook, signaling improving profitability and steady demand as budget-conscious shoppers across income levels continue to seek value amid a choppy macroeconomic backdrop.\nFollowing the earnings, Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman reiterated a Market Perform rating on Dollar General and raised his 12-month price target to $130 from $123.\nFeldman said Dollar General is attracting value-seeking shoppers across income groups and executing well despite an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.28, topping Feldman's 91-cent estimate and the 95-cent FactSet consensus.\nAlso Read: Why Are Trucking Stocks Suddenly Hot On Wall Street?\nFeldman said margin performance drove the upside. Operating margin expanded 82 bps to 4.0% as gross margin increased 107 bps to 29.9%, aided by lower shrinkage (about ~90 bps) and higher markups, partly offset by a higher LIFO provision.\nSG&A deleveraged 25 bps to 25.9% on incentive compensation, repairs and maintenance, and utilities, yet EBIT dollars still rose 31.5% to $426M.\nSales grew 4.6% to $10.7 billion, and comps increased 2.5%, driven entirely by a 2.5% increase in traffic. The average ticket remained roughly flat, as higher unit retail prices offset the decrease in items per basket.\nFeldman cited broad category strength, supported by \"back-to-basics\" initiatives and sharper value, more than 2,000 SKUs at or below $1, with Value Valley (about 500 $1 items) delivering a 7.6% comp. Seasonal and home also improved (+4.0%), and he noted continued trade-in from higher-income shoppers.\nBy the fourth quarter of 2025, Feldman said trends started well, despite delayed SNAP payments (~5% of tenders). He added that the shutdown period supported essential demand, with spending improving as benefits flowed later in November.\nDollar General raised 2025 EPS guidance to $6.30–$6.50 (from $5.80–$6.30) and increased sales growth (4.7%–4.9%) and comp (2.5%–2.7%) guidance.\nFeldman expects the planned paydown of $550 million of 2027 debt to lower interest expense and add roughly ~9 cents to EPS. He also highlighted 4,885 planned 2025 real estate projects and expanding delivery (DoorDash (NASDAQ: DASH) across 18,000+ stores; same-day in 17,000+; Uber Eats (NYSE:UBER) in 17,000).\nFeldman deemed the valuation fair at roughly 19.5x the midpoint of 2025 guidance. He based his $130 target on ~18x and 2026E EPS of $7.15, while flagging potential pressures from low income, competition, tariffs, and inflation.\nOn the Street, forecasts moved higher with ratings largely steady. Jefferies (Buy) raised its forecast to $142 from $130, while UBS (Buy) lifted its target to $143 from $135. Others also raised forecasts: Piper Sandler (Neutral) to $129 from $117, Truist (Hold) to $129 from $120, Morgan Stanley (Equal-Weight) to $135 from $125, Evercore ISI (In-Line) to $130 from $105, and BMO (Market Perform) to $130 from $115.\nDG Price Action: Dollar General shares were down 0.21% at $132.09 during premarket trading on Monday. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $135.08, according to Benzinga Pro data.\nRead Next:\nPhoto by Pamela Brick via Shutterstock","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2589335669","isCrawlerRequest":true}