MW Costco's stock turns negative for the year as U.S. sales trends decelerate
By Tomi Kilgore
A negative 2025 for Costco's stock would follow a doubling over the previous two years. Rival BJ's Wholesale shares are still up this year.
Costco's stock has fallen into the red for 2025, as U.S. comparable sales rose in the latest month, but by less than they did the month before.
Rather than how much sales rise for a retailer, investors sometimes care more about how that growth has changed over time.
If it's just about growth from a year ago, Costco Wholesale Corp. $(COST)$ beat both Wall Street expectations and the growth reported by its rival membership-based warehouse retailers.
For the fiscal fourth quarter to Nov. 30, Costco said late Wednesday that comparable sales, or sales at stores open more than a year, rose 6.4% from a year ago, including 5.9% growth in its U.S. business. That beat the average analyst estimates compiled by FactSet for overall growth of 6% and U.S. growth of 5.3%.
In comparison, BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc. $(BJ)$ said comparable sales for the quarter to Nov. 1 were up 1.8%, while Walmart Inc.'s $(WMT)$ Sam's Club saw sales rise 3.8%.
But Costco's stock dropped 3.4% in recent midday trading, which put it down 2.8% in 2025.
What investors appear to be focusing on, according to some analysts, is that for the month of November, overall comparable sales growth came in at 6.4%, and U.S. sales at 5.8%. That's down from overall growth in October of 6.8%, and U.S. growth of 6.7%.
D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Baker said the deceleration wasn't just about one month. Looking back two years, the compounded growth rate for U.S. comparable sales was 10.1% in November, down from 12.5% in October.
While that might seem a bit nitpicky, Baker wasn't the only one to express concern.
"Stepping back, [Costco's] U.S. core comps and multi-year stacks have moderated over the past few months, and this could draw the attention of the bears," J.P. Morgan's Christopher Horvers wrote in a note to clients.
It wasn't just sales that slowed. Traffic at U.S. stores was up 3% from a year ago but down from 3.7% a month ago, D.A. Davidson's Baker noted.
Costco will release its full quarterly report on Dec. 11 after the closing bell. The company hasn't had a stellar record of pleasing investors with its results, as the stock has declined by an average of just under 4% the day after earnings were released in five of the past seven quarters. The two gains during that time were by an average of about 1.6%.
A yearly decline for Costco's stock would follow two years of gains, with the stock soaring a combined 100.7% in 2023 and 2024. The S&P 500 index SPX has advanced 16.5% in 2025, after rising a total 53.2% over the past two years.
Meanwhile, BJ's Wholesale shares were still up 1.5% this year after rising 35.1% over the previous two-year period. Walmart's stock has climbed 25.6% in 2025, but keep in mind that Sam's Club sales made up just about 13% of Walmart's total sales in the latest quarter.
-Tomi Kilgore
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 04, 2025 12:41 ET (17:41 GMT)
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