The Fed Is Approaching A Turning Point And Data-Rich Week Will Decide Whether Rate Cuts Can Begin

Benzinga_recent_news12-08

Markets increasingly expect the Fed to pivot but Powell needs confirmation from labor, inflation pipelines, and bond-market stability before he can formally open the door to rate cuts. Before ...

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A healthy rate-cut setup requires gradual cooling, not a sudden collapse. If JOLTS confirms steady normalization, Powell can more confidently describe the labor market as \"rebalancing,\" a phrase that typically precedes a dovish shift.Disinflation must look durable for the Fed to justify cuts.Crude builds and rising gasoline inventories would reinforce that demand is sof","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","TPB":"Turning Point Brands Inc.","BK4075":"烟草","BK4096":"电气部件与设备"},"translate_title":"美联储接近转折点数据丰富的一周将决定降息能否开始","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TPB":1.5},"content_text":"Markets increasingly expect the Fed to pivot but Powell needs confirmation from labor, inflation pipelines, and bond-market stability before he can formally open the door to rate cuts.\nBefore policymakers can move toward easing, three conditions must align:labor must cool without stress, the inflation pipeline must remain stable, and the bond market must stay orderly.This week's JOLTS report, energy inventories, and Treasury auctions leading up to the FOMC meeting provide the evidence the Fed needs.\nJob openings have been drifting toward pre-pandemic norms, indicating that wage-driven inflation pressure continues to fade. A healthy rate-cut setup requires gradual cooling, not a sudden collapse. If JOLTS confirms steady normalization, Powell can more confidently describe the labor market as \"rebalancing,\" a phrase that typically precedes a dovish shift.\nDisinflation must look durable for the Fed to justify cuts.Crude builds and rising gasoline inventories would reinforce that demand is softening and cost pressures are easing.If energy data show stability, Powell gains rhetorical room to acknowledge \"sustained progress\" on inflation. A key prerequisite for future easing.\nThe Fed cannot pivot into an unstable bond market.Strong demand at this week's 10-year and 30-year auctions would anchor long-term yields and give Powell space to lean dovish.Weak demand would fuel a rise in yields, effectively limiting how far Powell can go with rate-cut language.\nTogether, these three elements, labor, inflation pipeline, and bond-market stability form the structural foundation of the Fed's coming decision.\nWhen Powell delivers the FOMC statement and press conference on Wednesday, he will be speaking without knowing the next morning's inflation and labor figures.This is a rare communication trap: Powell must hint at future cuts while protecting the Fed's credibility in case the data moves against him.\nHe will attempt to signal:\nThe dot plot and Powell's tone will reveal how close the Fed believes it is to the first cut.\nLess than 18 hours after Powell speaks, the economy delivers its judgment.\nThis sequencing is the true story of the week:\nPowell sets the narrative.The data decides whether markets believe him.\nThe Fed's path toward easing — and market pricing for cuts — hinges on this 24-hour window.\nFor the Fed to open the door to rate cuts, the following alignment is essential:\nIf this alignment holds, Powell may signal a cut is likely within the next two meetings.If it breaks, the pivot is delayed.\nInvestors should brace for a high-volatility, data-rich week where policy expectations can shift in hours, not days.\nBenzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2589537183","isCrawlerRequest":true}