Deere (DE): Reassessing Valuation After Mixed Q4 2025 Results and Softer 2026 Profit Outlook

Simply Wall St.12-05 04:25

Deere (DE) just delivered one of those mixed quarters that keeps investors on their toes: higher Q4 2025 revenue, lower net income, and a softer 2026 profit outlook thanks to rising tariffs and costs....

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See our latest analysis for Deere. Despite the cautious 2026 outlook, investors have not abandoned the story. The share price is $481.82 and the year-to-date share price return of 15.22% signals steady but not explosive momentum, while a 5-year total shareholder return of 101.70% shows the long-term thesis is still very much intact. With tariffs, guidance, and boardroom moves all in play, this is also a good moment to look beyond Deere and see what else the market is rewarding, starting with aerospace and defense stocks. With the stock trading at a modest discount to analyst targets and a larger gap to some intrinsic value estimates, the key debate now is simple: is Deere quietly undervalued or is the market already pricing in its next leg of growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative Narrative: 8.4% Undervalued With Deere last closing at $481.82 against a narrative fair value near $525.78, the story leans toward hidden value, not peak optimism.  Rapid adoption of Deere's precision agriculture and automation solutions (e.g., JDLink Boost, Precision Essentials bundles, See & Spray tech, and new automation features) is driving higher-value product sales and increased software engagement globally, positioning Deere to benefit from shifts toward high-efficiency, technology-enabled farming; this should lift both future revenue and net margins through higher-margin recurring software and data services.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how modest top line expectations can still support a higher value? The narrative leans on richer margins, stronger earnings power, and a surprisingly ambitious profitability trajectory. Want to see the exact set of assumptions that make this math work? Result: Fair Value of $525.78 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, sharply higher steel tariffs and a deeper, longer downturn in North American large ag demand could quickly undermine those margin and earnings assumptions. Find out about the key risks to this Deere narrative.  Build Your Own Deere Narrative If you see the story differently or want to stress test these assumptions with your own inputs, you can build a full narrative in minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your Deere research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? Before you move on, put Deere in context by lining it up against fresh opportunities our stock screeners are surfacing across income, growth, and innovation themes.  Secure potential income now by targeting reliable payers through these 14 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that combine solid yields with fundamentals that support sustainable distributions. Position yourself for the next wave of innovation by focusing on companies at the frontier of intelligent automation with these 26 AI penny stocks. Capitalize on mispriced quality by zeroing in on stocks trading below their estimated cash flow value using these 908 undervalued stocks based on cash flows.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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