K-Shaped Growth And Policy Volatility, JP Morgan's 2026 Outlook

Benzinga_recent_news12-06 21:43

A resilient market at the headline level, yet with an uneven, policy-driven underlying economy. This is the reality that JP Morgan Asset Management sees for 2026 The firm expects another year of U.S. ...

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This is the reality that JP Morgan Asset Management sees for 2026\nThe firm expects another year of U.S. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/futures/25/12/49246100/k-shaped-growth-and-policy-volatility-jp-morgans-2026-outlook\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2271345857.HKD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/futures/25/12/49246100/k-shaped-growth-and-policy-volatility-jp-morgans-2026-outlook","article_id":"2589886826","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2025/12/06/JPMorgan-Exec-Demands-More-Hustle-As-Off.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/futures/25/12/49246100/k-shaped-growth-and-policy-volatility-jp-morgans-2026-outlook","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2589886826","pubTimestamp":1765028580,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"A resilient market at the headline level, yet with an uneven, policy-driven underlying economy. 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This is the reality that JP Morgan Asset Management sees for 2026\nThe firm expects another year of U.S. economic expansion, yet describes it as a K‑shaped path. Wealthier households and capital-rich corporates pulling away, while middle‑income consumers and rate‑sensitive sectors like housing remain \"soggy.\"\nThe bank's analysts see heavy fiscal support from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The real GDP forecast stands resilient, at above 3% in the first half, before fading to roughly 1 to 2% later. Inflation could follow growth, rising toward but not exceeding 4% year-over-year before sliding back to 2% by year-end.\nPolicy is at the heart of the volatility story. JP Morgan points to three key forces:\nThe bank is rather conservative regarding interest rate cuts. With inflation still around 3% and tariff effects in play, the bank expects a \"more patient\" Fed than markets would like. Their range: 2‑year Treasuries around 3.5%–3.75% and 10‑year yields in a 4.0%–4.5% band, with modest curve steepening. It is an interesting take given President Donald Trump's persistent pressure for lower rates.\nGoing into 2026, the bank advises market participants to focus on duration rather than direction and expect rate volatility.\n“More than trying to perfectly capture yield levels, investors should lean into the income in fixed income, especially tied to solid corporate, consumer, and municipal balance sheets,” the bank said. iShares 10+ Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:IGLB) has gained 3.28% year-to-date.\nIn its view, inflation hedges such as TIPS and commodities still have a role. Owing to rising domestic debt and inflation uncertainty, non‑U.S. sovereigns and EM local‑currency debt are valuable diversifiers.\nOn equities, JP Morgan acknowledges stretched valuations but stops short of calling a bubble. The \"Magnificent 7\" still dominate earnings and capex, though the bank expects some \"broadening\" of profit growth.\nGlobally, international equities outperformed the U.S. by about 1,520 bps in 2025, and the bank thinks that catch‑up has more room. First, it notes that the U.S. dollar is still 10% over what it deems as fair value. Then it points to the U.S. equity premium over international markets, which remains at 34% (vs. a 19% long-run average).\nFinally, with the U.S. still accounting for over 65% of global benchmarks and 40% of the domestic market cap in just 10 names, there is support for a gradual rotation. Tilting toward select value and international markets while maintaining core exposure to secular AI winners. Investors heading this advice might keep an eye on ETFs such as Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:IEMG).\nGoing forward, the bank sees four structural themes too compelling to sit out.\nPositive nominal growth and the end of negative rates are revitalizing European and Japanese companies, particularly in financials. The AI theme continues to broaden, extending from U.S. tech giants to semiconductors, cloud services, and robotics across Asia and emerging markets.\nFurthermore, significant fiscal spending, particularly in the Eurozone and Japan, is boosting government investment in infrastructure and defense, favoring domestic companies.\nFinally, a growing focus on shareholder returns, including buybacks and higher dividends, is spreading globally, as Europe and Asia increasingly adopt policies once unique to the U.S.\nRead Next:  AI Growth Will Keep Magnificent 7 The Place To Be In 2026, BlackRock Says","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.10","shortVersion":"4.35.10","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2589886826","isCrawlerRequest":true}