** J.P. Morgan forecasts a tough 2026 for the EMEA paper and packaging sector, citing looming excess supply that prompts a highly selective stock-picking approach
** The brokerage expects global oversupply to pressure cartonboard prices, while EU containerboard and global pulp prices will likely hover around cost support levels for 2026
** Reflecting this cautious view, JPM downgrades Swedish forest products firm SCA SCAa.ST to "neutral" from "overweight" due to declining wood fibre prices
** The broker also keeps "underweight" ratings on Holmen HOLMb.ST and UPM UPM.HE, citing Holmen's unfavourable product mix and a deteriorating post-2027 pulp outlook for UPM
** However, the broker highlights the U.S. corrugated market as "a place to hide, and eventually thrive" thanks to disciplined supply and stable pricing prospects
** Consequently, JPM reiterates its "overweight" ratings on US-exposed firms Smurfit WestRock SWR.L and Packaging Corp of America PKG.N as its top ideas for 2026
(Reporting by Marta Frackowiak)
((marta.frackowiak@thomsonreuters.com))
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