China oil demand to plateau between 2025 and 2030, state researcher says

Reuters12-11

UPDATE 1-China oil demand to plateau between 2025 and 2030, state researcher says

Adds details of forecast; paragraphs 2-7

BEIJING, Dec 11 (Reuters) - China's oil demand is forecast to plateau between the years 2025 and 2030, a research group linked to state oil major CNPC said on Thursday, as the rise of electric vehicles slashes demand for gasoline and diesel.

Most of China's incremental demand for oil this year came from jet fuel and petrochemicals, said Haibo Wang, director of oil market research at the CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute.

Apparent consumption of oil is expected to reach 760 million tons in 2025, up 0.9% on the year, he added, but demand is set to stabilise next year and stay above 700 million tons until 2030.

Last year the research unit forecast that oil demand could reach 770 million tons in 2025, before gradually falling to 240 million by 2060.

In September, top refiner Sinopec, which is also state-owned, said it expected total oil demand to peak in 2027.

Natural gas demand will peak later, between 2035 to 2045 at 620 billion to 650 billion cubic meters, the CNPC research group added.

It also raised its forecast for oil demand used to make chemicals and new materials to a peak of 290 million tons in 2050, up 57% from this year.

(Reporting by Colleen Howe and Sam Li in Beijing; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

((lewis.jackson@thomsonreuters.com; +86 139 1179 6497; Reuters Messaging: Wechat: LewisJackson92))

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