Rising Unemployment Expected to Keep Fed Dovish -- Market Talk

Dow Jones12-11

1021 ET - A weakening U.S. labor market will keep the Fed in interest-rate cutting mode despite stubborn inflation, Natixis economists say in their 2026 outlook. They forecast core PCE around 3% (versus the Fed's 2% target) and unemployment reaching 4.7% before easing to 4.5%, up from 4.4% in the latest payrolls report. The fed funds target rate's top of the band would fall to 3% from the current 3.75%. Natixis expects shorter-term Treasury yields to fall driven by Fed cuts, while longer-term ones would rise on fears inflation would trigger hiking. It forecasts the year-end 10-year at 4.6%, up from 4.11% now, and two-year at 3.4%, up from 3.51%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 11, 2025 10:22 ET (15:22 GMT)

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