Cenovus Energy Maintained at Buy at TPH Following 2026 Guidance; Price Target at C$30.00

MT Newswires Live12-12

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Thursday reiterated its buy rating on the shares of Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO, CVE) with a C$30.00 price target after the oil producer and refiner released 2026 guidance.

"Neutral 2026 outlook all-around on Upstream production, Downstream throughput, and like-for-like capex, keeping our constructive outlook on the stock unchanged following the string of positive updates the company has provided over the last few quarters. The budget has minor noise related to an alignment in reporting format, with Upstream turnaround expenses now capitalized to align with CDN integrated peers and putting headline capex of C$5.0-5.3B above estimates, but we see the C$4.7-5.0B ex-Upstream turnarounds as apples-to-apples y/y and more comparable vs. TPHe/Street C$4.7B/C$4.8B. On Upstream production, 945-985mboepd guidance is ~aligned at the midpoint with TPHe/Street 968/968, with the breakdown at the midpoints showing (vs. TPHe) better oil sands expectations (755-780mbopd vs. TPHe/Street 752/758), offset mostly by Conventional (120-125mboepd vs. TPHe/Street 133/128) and to a lesser degree Offshore (70-80mboepd vs. TPHe/Street 81/75). In Downstream, throughput guidance of 430-450mbpd bounds TPHe/Street 446/445, reflecting crude utilization between 91-95% inclusive of turnaround impacts," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

Price: 24.08, Change: -0.59, Percent Change: -2.37

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The budget has minor noise related to an alignment in reporting format, with Upstream turnaround expenses now capitalized to align with CDN integrated peers and putting headline capex of C$5.0-5.3B above estimates, but we see the C$4.7-5.0B ex-Upstream turnarounds as apples-to-apples y/y and more comparable vs. TPHe/Street C$4.7B/C$4.8B. On Upstream production, 945-985mboepd guidance is ~aligned at the midpoint with TPHe/Street 968/968, with the breakdown at the midpoints showing (vs. TPHe) better oil sands expectations (755-780mbopd vs. TPHe/Street 752/758), offset mostly by Conventional (120-125mboepd vs. TPHe/Street 133/128) and to a lesser degree Offshore (70-80mboepd vs. TPHe/Street 81/75). 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The budget has minor noise related to an alignment in reporting format, with Upstream turnaround expenses now capitalized to align with CDN integrated peers and putting headline capex of C$5.0-5.3B above estimates, but we see the C$4.7-5.0B ex-Upstream turnarounds as apples-to-apples y/y and more comparable vs. TPHe/Street C$4.7B/C$4.8B. On Upstream production, 945-985mboepd guidance is ~aligned at the midpoint with TPHe/Street 968/968, with the breakdown at the midpoints showing (vs. TPHe) better oil sands expectations (755-780mbopd vs. TPHe/Street 752/758), offset mostly by Conventional (120-125mboepd vs. TPHe/Street 133/128) and to a lesser degree Offshore (70-80mboepd vs. TPHe/Street 81/75). 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The budget has minor noise related to an alignment in reporting format, with Upstream turnaround expenses now capitalized to align with CDN integrated peers and putting headline capex of C$5.0-5.3B above estimates, but we see the C$4.7-5.0B ex-Upstream turnarounds as apples-to-apples y/y and more comparable vs. TPHe/Street C$4.7B/C$4.8B. On Upstream production, 945-985mboepd guidance is ~aligned at the midpoint with TPHe/Street 968/968, with the breakdown at the midpoints showing (vs. TPHe) better oil sands expectations (755-780mbopd vs. TPHe/Street 752/758), offset mostly by Conventional (120-125mboepd vs. TPHe/Street 133/128) and to a lesser degree Offshore (70-80mboepd vs. TPHe/Street 81/75). In Downstream, throughput guidance of 430-450mbpd bounds TPHe/Street 446/445, reflecting crude utilization between 91-95% inclusive of turnaround impacts,\" analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. 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