BUZZ-Exane expects 2026 earnings growth for European OEMs, flags Chinese imports

Reuters12-11
BUZZ-Exane expects 2026 earnings growth for European OEMs, flags Chinese imports

** Exane BNP Paribas says European carmakers have held market share well against Chinese imports, but warns that continued resilience needs stronger tech and more government support

** It expects 2026 as a year of earnings growth, coming from improved EU demand from subsidies, cost savings and new product offerings after years of investments

** The broker sees upcoming "automotive package" from EU as a possible positive catalyst, potentially relaxing emission rules for 2030, 2035 and requiring more EU-made content

** However, it estimates imports from China in the sector to rise around 25% in 2026

** It raises Ferrari RACE.MI to "outperform" from "neutral" expecting Ferrari to boost earnings in 2026 mainly through higher prices and a favourable product mix, as resale prices have stabilised

** It cuts Stellantis STLAM.MI to "underperform" from "neutral", expecting recovery to come slower than consensus forecasts

Company

PT

% Change

Old Rating

New Rating

Ferrari NV RACE.MI

399.0

-4%

Neutral

Outperform

Porsche AG P911_p.DE

47.0

+9%

Neutral

Neutral

Renault RENA.PA

46.0

+2%

Outperform

Outperform

Stellantis STLAM.MI

7.8

-11%

Neutral

Underperform

Volkswagen VOWG.DE

153.0

+13%

Outperform

Outperform

Volkswagen VOWG_p.DE

143.0

+14%

Outperform

Outperform

Volvo Car AB VOLCARb.ST

24.0

+50%

Underperform

Underperform

(Reporting by Mirko Miorelli)

((Mirko.miorelli@thomsonreuters.com))

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