New Zealand Economy Expectedly Grew 1% in Q3, Says ANZ

MT Newswires Live12-11

ANZ said it expects that the New Zealand economy grew 1% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter, significantly stronger than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) November Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) forecast of 0.4%, according to a Thursday report by ANZ.

The bank's previous forecast was of 0.5%, which it has revised after the sectoral data released over recent weeks have exceeded expectations.

The bank believes that growth is coming from a low base and the economy continues to operate with spare capacity.

ANZ added that historical revisions could provide a surprise on the day, as revisions can be particularly large in the third quarter release, as it is when a lot of the more comprehensive annual data is incorporated into gross domestic product (GDP) estimates.

The bank believes that the annual current account deficit narrowed 0.3% points to 3.4% of GDP, well within sustainable levels.

ANZ said that the RBNZ has been cautious about GDP data due to volatility and revisions, but it still matters. A stronger-than-expected result, as ANZ expects, would support expectations of a cash rate hike. However, how much the RBNZ reacts will depend on the underlying components rather than the headline alone.

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