By Teresa Rivas
Jerom-ino. Stocks stumbled on Monday, as investors had little to cling to before the Federal Reserve (most likely) takes the plunge with another interest rate cut. The Federal Open Market Committee meets over the next two days with an expected quarter-point cut due at 2 p.m. on Wednesday. The real question is what comes next.
"The December Federal Open Market Committee meeting seems likely to see a 'hawkish cut', if such a thing really exists," 22V Research's Peter Williams recently noted. On Monday he wrote that Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces a challenge in that "there is very little consensus on the FOMC about the near-term outlook for policy. There is simply no way for Powell to avoid the disagreements, both formal dissents and the broader bevy of Fedspeak."
That division will likely make itself felt in any commentary, and of course make investors more uncertain about the outlook for rate cuts in 2026.
That uncertainty showed up in today's trading with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the day down 216 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 lost 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.1%.
"The market reaction is likely to focus on the dot plot, statement language changes, and communication from Chair Powell and any potential guidance on the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts," writes David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group. "Here, we believe, the compromise will be for a more neutral (less dovish) outlook, one that makes it clear the committee sees the timing and cadence of future cuts as more ambiguous."
Of course, these premeeting jitters could fade entirely after the market has time to digest the Fed's outlook, with the focus shifting back to AI and the health of the consumer. Oracle, Broadcom and Costco report later this week.
Plenty of firms have already put out upbeat outlooks for 2026.
"A combination of strong earnings and lower rates likely keep equities moving higher in 2026. This past year, the market was largely driven by earnings growth," writes Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X. "Two catalysts seem better than one, so there is reason to remain optimistic despite potential risks from weaker employment and geopolitical curveballs."
The Hot Stock: Paramount Skydance +9.0% The Biggest Loser: Air Products and Chemicals -9.5%
Best Sector: Information Technology +0.9% Worst Sector: Communication Services -1.8%
The Next Wave in Weight Loss
There could be more innovation coming in the weight-loss drug arena.
Biotechs Structure Therapeutics and WAVE Life Sciences both announced breakthroughs in their weight loss products, my colleague Josh Nathan-Kazis reported today
While that news boosted their stocks, GLP-1 stalwarts Eli Lilly & Co. and Novo Nordisk took a hit. There has been concerns that their dominance could be upended, particularly by products that don't require repeated injections, given how fast the market is moving. From Josh's report:
The WAVE drug is in the earliest stages of clinical testing. Even the Structure drug has yet to begin the Phase 3 trials that would be the basis for a potential approval by the Food and Drug Administration.
But taken together, they show that threats to Lilly and Novo's dominance of the obesity market are on the way.
The market for the new, highly effective wave of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs has been shared between Novo and Lilly since the launch of Lilly's Zepbound in 2023. But even in that short time, the market has shifted significantly: Novo has ceded its early dominance to Lilly, which now wins the majority of U.S. GLP-1 obesity prescriptions.
Eli Lilly is up more than 70% in the roughly two years since Zepbound's launch. As a brief member of the trillion-dollar market cap club, it's often seen as an alternative to the AI tech giants.
Lilly and Novo Nordisk have their own strong pipeline of products, meaning they might be down but not out. Perhaps the only thing certain is that the market for obesity management products just keeps growing.
The Calendar
AeroVironment, AutoZone, Campbell's, Casey's General Stores, Ferguson Enterprises and GameStop report earnings tomorrow.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for both September and October. At the end of August, there were 7.22 million job openings, and 1.02 unemployed workers for every open position, the highest ratio since April 2021.
The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for November. The consensus estimate is for a 98.2 reading, matching the October figure, and in line with the 52-year average of 98.
What We're Reading Today
-- Paramount Launches Hostile Bid for Warner Bros. Here Are the Details. -- Combs' Departure from Berkshire Leaves a Gap in Managing Equity Portfolio -- Berkshire's Silent CFO Is Retiring. He Was 'Indispensable' to Buffett. -- Robinhood Expands Reach in Asia With Indonesia Acquisition -- Southwest Airlines Avoids $11 Million Fine for Holiday Travel Chaos. How It Got Off the Hook.
What's Ahead for Markets in 2026? Join Barron's virtual roundtable on Dec. 11.
From "Liberation Day" tariffs to torrid rallies in AI stocks and gold, this year has been full of surprises. Join us for discussions with investment strategists and money managers about the outlook for the economy and markets in 2026 -- and how to position your portfolio for success.
Sign up here.
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 08, 2025 19:55 ET (00:55 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments