BOE Rate-Cut Chances Rise after Surprise Fall in U.K. GDP -- Market Talk

Dow Jones12-12

0838 GMT - An unexpected contraction in the U.K. economy in October strengthens the case for a Bank of England interest-rate cut next week, Capital Economics economist Ruth Gregory says in a note. October's 0.1% overall decline is especially disappointing given the modest increase in manufacturing output, which rebounded after September's cyberattack hit on Jaguar Land Rover, she says. "It's striking that the economy has only grown in one of the past seven months." The economy is no bigger than at the start of the second quarter, and manufacturing no higher than it was in mid-2023, Gregory says. That weakness, alongside a slowing labor market and decline in inflation, increases confidence that the BOE will cut by a quarter-point on Dec. 18. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 12, 2025 03:38 ET (08:38 GMT)

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October's 0.1% overall decline is especially disappointing given the modest increase in manufacturing output, which rebounded after September's cyberattack hit on Jaguar Land Rover, she says. \"It's striking that the economy has only grown in one of the past seven months.\" The economy is no bigger than at the start of the second quarter, and manufacturing no higher than it was in mid-2023, Gregory says. That weakness, alongside a slowing labor market and decline in inflation, increases confidence that the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00710\">BOE</a> will cut by a quarter-point on Dec. 18. 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October's 0.1% overall decline is especially disappointing given the modest increase in manufacturing output, which rebounded after September's cyberattack hit on Jaguar Land Rover, she says. \"It's striking that the economy has only grown in one of the past seven months.\" The economy is no bigger than at the start of the second quarter, and manufacturing no higher than it was in mid-2023, Gregory says. That weakness, alongside a slowing labor market and decline in inflation, increases confidence that the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00710\">BOE</a> will cut by a quarter-point on Dec. 18. 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