North American Morning Briefing: Dow Futures Climb, Nasdaq Futures Fall

Dow Jones12-12 19:02

OPENING CALL

Stock futures were struggling for direction on Friday following the Federal Reserve rate cut decision earlier this week and as tech stocks took center stage again.

The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and left the door open to further reductions in 2026. Initial jobless claims for the week to December came in higher than expected Thursday.

The U.S. interest-rate outlook for the months ahead now stands at a critical inflection point, First Abu Dhabi Bank said.

The bank anticipates no more than 50 basis points of additional rate cuts by the Fed in 2026. However, ultimately, the interest-rate path for the year will depend heavily on how inflation evolves, how the labor market performs, and how both internal and external policy risks play out.

Investors are now awaiting Fed speakers, including the dissenters of this week's interest-rate decision .

"Focus will fall largely on Fedspeak, with scheduled remarks due from 2026 voters Hammack and Paulson, while dissenters Goolsbee, Schmid, and Miran will all likely issue statements explaining why they didn't vote with the majority on Wednesday," Pepperstone said.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq traded down premarket as results from Broadcom and Oracle reignited fears over an AI bubble, offsetting the positive impact of the Fed's interest-rate cut on Wednesday for risky assets.

Investors are bracing for a busy week next week, which will include a European Central Bank announcement and U.S. inflation data.

Stocks to Watch

Costco recorded higher quarterly revenue from membership fees as it aims to open more warehouses to drive growth. Shares ticked down premarket.

Concerns about Broadcom's sales forecasts, contracts backlog and anticipated future margins overshadowed its rapid revenue growth . Shares fell nearly 5% premarket.

Lululemon's Calvin McDonald will step down in January as CEO of the company, which has been under pressure from its founder to make changes to reverse its "loss of cool." Shares jumped 9% before the bell.

RH logged mixed quarterly results and narrowed its annual sales outlook toward the lower end of its range. Shares gained 4% premarket, however. RH said tariffs had resulted in product delays, items out of stock and price increases.

Warner Bros. Discovery shares advanced 1.5% premarket as investors continue to bet that a higher bid for the company is coming. Shares are up 13% this week through Thursday, on pace for its best weekly performance since October.

Watch For:

U.S. Personal Income and Outlays - Estimated Date for October; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson speaks before the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce; FRB Cleveland President Beth Hammack speaks at University of Cincinnati Real Estate Center Roundtable Series event

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

-Behind the Deal That Took Disney From AI Skeptic to OpenAI Investor

-Hope for More Rate Cuts Is Tempting Buyers Back to Bonds

- Seizure of Venezuelan Oil Strikes at the Heart of Maduro's Grip on Power

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar remained weak after reaching a nearly eight-week low in the previous session , dented by expectations for further interest rate cuts.

The dollar could suffer if Kevin Hassett, the expected pick to be the next Fed chair, pursues interest-rate cuts

regardless of whether this is warranted, Commerzbank said.

The euro traded close to a two-month high against the dollar, lifted by a divergence in Fed and ECB policy.

Sterling edged lower after weak U.K. GDP data .

Bonds:

Long-dated Treasury yields traded higher before European opening, with some Fed speakers lining up , including the dissenters of this week's interest-rate decision.

Barclays continues to be long in two-year Treasurys-- anticipating a fall in yields in this maturity .

Steeper Treasury curves should be cyclically driven by the Fed in the near term , Natixis said.

Energy:

Oil prices rose, but were poised for a significant weekly loss amid diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine and overall bearish fundamentals pointing to an oversupplied market next year.

"This is a sharp reversal from outlooks earlier this year which pointed to tighter markets," ANZ said.

Metals:

Gold prices were on track for a weekly gain after the Federal Reserve delivered a much-anticipated quarter-point interest-rate cut this week and as investors hope for further easing next year.

"We expect gold to continue behaving as the more grounded barometer of macro sentiment , with upside likely capped in the near term unless the dollar weakens much further," Sucden Financial said.

Gold Chart

Comex gold futures' bullish momentum was growing stronger, based on the daily chart, RHB Retail Research said. The commodity now has a stronger position after clearing its consolidation range.

Copper

Copper prices were lower, weighed down by subdued demand. In the near term, supportive macro sentiment is colliding with bearish industry fundamentals , Baocheng Futures said.

Iron

Iron ore fell in early trade. Prices may be driven by macro sentiment in the short term, Nanhua Futures said.

   TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES 

Law Professor Sues Boeing After Alleged Exposure to Toxic Fumes on Flight

A law professor is suing Boeing alleging that exposure to a toxic fume event on a Delta-operated 737 led to his lasting brain and respiratory injuries.

The lawsuit, which his lawyer says is the first on this topic led by a passenger on a U.S. commercial flight, underscores the potential legal liability facing the industry as it grapples with a surge in cases of fume events in recent years.

The Case for a Housing Stock Comeback in 2026

Home was not where the heart was for investors this year. That could change in 2026.

Housing stocks have stagnated due to concerns about high mortgage rates, tariffs lifting construction costs, and out-of-reach home prices. As a result, two top housing-related exchange-traded funds have missed out on this year's market rally. The iShares U.S. Home Construction exchange-traded fund is down about 0.6% this year, while the State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF is up just 4.3%.

SpaceX's Huge IPO Valuation: 2 Lessons as Musk Creates Another Tesla

Like him or not, it's hard to dispute that Elon Musk generates some incredible numbers. Take SpaceX. It's on the cusp of becoming another Tesla-a trillion-dollar entity dwarfing competitors in an established industry.

Earlier in the week Musk appeared to confirm that SpaceX was on track for a 2026 IPO, which would provide capital to accelerate AI data centers in space and value SpaceX at up to $1.5 trillion.

Behind the Deal That Took Disney From AI Skeptic to OpenAI Investor

OpenAI's strategy team began its early November off-site gathering in the seaside community of Marina del Rey near Los Angeles with an intriguing guest speaker: Disney's top lawyer, Horacio Gutierrez.

Since OpenAI kicked off the AI revolution, Hollywood has eyed the AI industry with a tortured mix of excitement, wariness and hostility.

Don't Fight the AI Bubble. Even Cisco Eventually Won.

Oracle's second-quarter earnings report underlined the fragility of the AI trade in the second half of 2025. It doesn't take much bad news from one company to take down the whole industry the next day.

The volatility is driven by the fact that investors are now filtering every piece of news through the bubble lens and have one foot out the door. It's an understandable reaction, but it might be self-defeating.

U.K. Economy Contracts Again, Likely Cementing BOE Rate Cut

The U.K. economy contracted for a second straight month in October, cementing expectations that the Bank of England will lower its key interest rate next week.

Economic activity dipped 0.1% on month in October, the Office for National Statistics said Friday, after a 0.1% fall in September. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a 0.1% increase.

Tibetan Activists Say China Has Detained Protesters Who Staged Rare Act of Defiance

Chinese authorities arrested dozens of Tibetans who were protesting a mining project in one of their communities, according to Tibetan activists and the government in exile, an act of defiance by a community that has been tightly controlled by Beijing.

On Nov. 5, scores of people in a Tibetan autonomous area in the western Chinese province of Sichuan protested after learning of the start of a gold mine in a pasture area used by nomads for their sheep and yaks, according to accounts from 40 people there collected by a group of seven Tibetans in exile from relatives and friends in the village.

Trump Says Ukraine Is Losing the War. Officers on the Front Line Disagree.

KYIV, Ukraine-President Trump says Ukraine is losing the war against Russia. That's not what it looks like to Ukrainian Army Maj. Oleh Hlushko, a battalion commander whose men repelled another assault on their part of the southeastern front this week.

"Occasionally, they manage to raise their flags and claim that a position has been taken, but we then conduct clearing operations, remove the symbols, and the position remains under our control," said Hlushko, of the Separate Presidential Brigade.

Seizure of Venezuelan Oil Strikes at the Heart of Maduro's Grip on Power

The Trump administration's seizure of a tanker full of Venezuelan crude hits Nicolás Maduro much harder than airstrikes on alleged drug boats. It raises an existential crisis for a regime that runs on oil revenue.

While the U.S. has accused Maduro of leading a drug-trafficking cartel-a charge he denies-oil money is far more important to the Venezuelan leader, his inner circle and the country itself. Crude sales have long represented more than 90% of Venezuela's export income, and close Maduro allies have faced accusations of skimming from billions in annual oil revenues.

The Hunt for Assad's Brutal Enforcer

DAMASCUS-During 13 years of revolution and war, the Syrian dictatorship of President Bashar al-Assad set a high water mark for cruelty in the 21st century, disappearing tens of thousands of perceived political opponents and flattening entire neighborhoods. Now that the regime has fallen, the hunt is on for one of Assad's most brutal enforcers.

Maj. Gen. Jamil al-Hassan, the former head of Syria's Air Force Intelligence agency, was notorious as an architect of the regime's collective-punishment campaign to break the rebellion.

Write to priscila.barrera@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

NA

Economic Indicators $(ET)$:

0830 Oct Building permits, M/M%

0830 Q3 Industrial capacity utilization rates

0830 Oct New motor vehicle sales

0830 Oct Wholesale trade ex-Petro, Oilseeds, Grain, M/M%

Stocks to Watch:

CAE Wins Australian Air Force Contract; Australian Defense Contract Valued at Over C$270M, Has Initial Period of 10 Years; To Deliver Modern, Integrated Training System for RAAF; Contract Builds on Longstanding Partnership With RAAF

DIRTT Announces Financing From BDC and Refinancing of Debentures; BDC to Lend Company Up to C$15M

Loblaw to Issue C$500M of Senior Unsecured Notes

Lululemon Acquiring New Customers Across All Age Demographics, CEO Says; Outerwear Sales Grew Double-Digits in 3Q, CEO Says; 3Q International Growth Driven by China Sales, CEO Says; Saw Growth in New and Returning Customers in 3Q, CEO Says; Sales Trends Have Slowed Since Thanksgiving, CEO Says; CEO: Customers Looking for Value in Competitive Market; CEO: Increased Black Friday Traffic Helped Clean Up Inventory; CFO: Current Assortment Doesn't Reflect Vision for Brand Going Forward; Plans to Curate In-Store Assortments by Local Tastes, CFO Says; to Increase Marketing Spend in 4Q to Drive Traffic, Build Brand Awareness, CFO Says

Rio2 Announces Filing of Prospectus Supplement in Connection With Previously Announced "Bought Deal" Equity Financing

Sienna Offering $250M of 3.524% Series F Senior Unsecured Debentures

The Becker Milk Company 1H Adj FFO Per Share CAD 0.22; 1H Revenue CAD 1.43M; Reports 1H Revenue of CAD 1.43 Million; 6-Mos Rev C$1.4M; 6-Mos EPS C$0.39; Company Continues to Review Its Strategic Alternatives

Expected Major Events for Friday

00:01/UK: Nov Scottish Retail Sales Monitor

00:01/UK: CBI Economic Forecast

04:30/JPN: Oct Revised Industrial Production

07:00/GER: Nov CPI

07:00/UK: Oct Index of production

07:00/UK: Oct UK trade

07:00/UK: Oct Index of services

07:00/UK: Oct Monthly GDP estimates

07:45/FRA: Nov CPI

09:30/UK: Nov Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey

12:30/UK: Nov NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker

13:30/CAN: Oct Building permits

13:30/CAN: 3Q Industrial capacity utilization rates

13:30/CAN: Oct New motor vehicle sales

13:30/CAN: Oct Wholesale trade

16:59/GER: Oct Balance of Payments

All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.

Expected Earnings for Friday

Bio-Path Holdings Inc $(BPTH)$ is expected to report for 3Q.

Brand House Collective Inc $(TBHC)$ is expected to report $-0.46 for 3Q.

Charles Schwab Corp $(SCHW)$ is expected to report.

Ferrellgas Partners LP (FGPR) is expected to report for 1Q.

Helix BioPharma Corp (HBP.T) is expected to report for 1Q.

Johnson Outdoors Inc - Class A $(JOUT)$ is expected to report $-0.68 for 4Q.

NASB Financial Inc (NASB) is expected to report for 4Q.

Rent the Runway Inc (RENT) is expected to report for 3Q.

Sonder Holdings Inc $(SONDQ)$ is expected to report for 3Q.

TIC Solutions Inc $(TIC)$ is expected to report for 3Q.

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ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS

10x Genomics Cut to Neutral From Buy by Citigroup

ACV Auctions Cut to Hold From Buy by Jefferies

Alexander & Baldwin Cut to Neutral From Buy by Janney Montgomery Scott

Cactus Raised to Buy From Neutral by Citigroup

Citizens Financial Group Cut to Neutral From Outperform by Baird

Colgate-Palmolive Cut to Hold From Buy by Argus Research

CrowdStrike Holdings Raised to Buy From Hold by Freedom Capital Markets

DTE Energy Raised to Buy From Hold by Jefferies

Fed Rate Cut Unlikely to Move Oil Markets: Rystad -- OPIS

First Horizon Cut to Neutral From Outperform by Baird

Fortrea Holdings Raised to Buy From Neutral by Citigroup

GE Vernova Cut to Neutral From Buy by Seaport Global

Haemonetics Cut to Neutral From Buy by Citigroup

Heartbeam Raised to Buy From Speculative Buy by Benchmark

Intuitive Surgical Cut to Neutral From Buy by Citigroup

JB Hunt Raised to Buy From Hold by Deutsche Bank

Norfolk Southern Cut to Hold From Buy by Deutsche Bank

PayPal Holdings Cut to Neutral From Buy by B of A Securities

Penumbra Raised to Buy From Neutral by Citigroup

Roku Raised to Buy From Hold by Jefferies

Soluna Holdings Raised to Buy From Neutral by HC Wainwright & Co.

Synopsys Raised to Buy From Neutral by B of A Securities

Thermo Fisher Raised to Buy From Neutral by Citigroup

Truist Financial Cut to Neutral From Outperform by Baird

Union Pacific Cut to Hold From Buy by Deutsche Bank

Unity Software Raised to Buy From Neutral by BTIG

Unity Software Raised to Overweight From Neutral by Piper Sandler

Valero Energy Cut to Neutral From Buy by B of A Securities

Visa Raised to Buy From Neutral by B of A Securities

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 12, 2025 06:02 ET (11:02 GMT)

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