Does Weaker Americas HVAC Outlook And Dividend Payout Change The Bull Case For Carrier (CARR)?

Simply Wall St.12-15

Earlier this month, Carrier Global Corporation announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.24 per share, payable on February 9, 2026 to shareowners of record on January...

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This dividend decision comes shortly after Carrier signaled weaker-than-expected Q4 2025 results in its Americas residential HVAC business, highlighting a contrast between shareholder returns and near-term operating pressures. We’ll now explore how Carrier’s weaker Q4 outlook in its core Americas residential HVAC segment may influence the previously optimistic investment narrative. Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.Carrier Global Investment Narrative RecapTo own Carrier today, you need to believe in its long term role in climate, energy efficiency and smart-building solutions, despite uneven earnings and regional headwinds. The weaker-than-expected Q4 2025 outlook in Americas residential HVAC directly pressures what has been a key earnings driver, but the dividend increase itself does not materially change the near term catalyst or the main risk around demand softness in core HVAC markets. The most relevant recent announcement here is the Board’s decision to lift the quarterly dividend to US$0.24 per share, even after the negative Q4 pre-announcement and target price cuts. That move sits against a backdrop where investors are watching whether Carrier’s product innovation in high efficiency HVAC and smart energy solutions can offset softness in residential demand and margin pressure from tariffs and regional weakness. Yet beneath the dividend increase and growth story, investors should be aware of the risk that tariff exposure and soft spots in Climate Solutions could... Read the full narrative on Carrier Global (it's free!)Carrier Global's narrative projects $26.7 billion revenue and $2.9 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 5.9% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.4 billion earnings increase from $1.5 billion today.Uncover how Carrier Global's forecasts yield a $72.69 fair value, a 37% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesCARR 1-Year Stock Price Chart Six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from about US$26 to extremely high outliers above US$50,000, showing just how far apart individual views can be. Set against this, Carrier’s reliance on differentiated HVAC and smart energy products as key growth catalysts underlines why it is worth weighing several contrasting opinions before deciding how its future performance could unfold.Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Carrier Global - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!Build Your Own Carrier Global NarrativeDisagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Carrier Global research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.Our free Carrier Global research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Carrier Global's overall financial health at a glance.Looking For Alternative Opportunities?Our daily scans reveal stocks with breakout potential. Don't miss this chance:Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward.These 11 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.Outshine the giants: these 26 early-stage AI stocks could fund your retirement.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.The New Payments ETF Is Live on NASDAQ:Money is moving to real-time rails, and a newly listed ETF now gives investors direct exposure. Fast settlement. Institutional custody. Simple access.Explore how this launch could reshape portfoliosSponsored ContentNew: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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