By Doug Busch
When asked why he robbed banks, Willie Sutton is said to have replied "because that's where the money is."
Investors may be taking the same approach with the diverse banking sector, as capital flows steadily into the Financial Select SPDR Fund. The ETF jumped 2.4% last week, breaking above a $53.99 double-bottom pivot and marking a fresh all-time high. This despite shaky recent action from its two largest holdings, JPMorgan Chase and Berkshire Hathaway. The former reversed $20 on Dec. 12, sliding 5% and finishing as the S&P 500's second-worst performer that day, while the latter was down seven of nine sessions before completing a bullish morning star pattern on Dec. 11.
Financial stocks as a whole are firing on nearly all cylinders however. Goldman Sachs has rallied in 14 of the last 16 sessions, briefly clearing the very round $900 mark. The stock has now doubled in price since its early April lows. BlackRock has rebounded sharply off the round $1000 level three weeks ago and is attempting to push through a double-bottom pivot at $1098.74. Even Circle Internet Group, still 73% off its most recent 52-week high, is participating in the rally. It has carved out a precise long-term double bottom near $64 on Nov. 20.
Regional bank stocks are rising as well The State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF has broken above a weekly inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and rose another 3.6% last week. The iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF has gained 26% year to date, outpacing even the Nasdaq Composite. The iShares U.S. Insurance ETF is showing renewed strength as top holding Progressive Corp. rebounds sharply off the very round $200 level. Against that backdrop, here are three stocks that still appear to have room to run into year end -- and beyond.
Lemonade, an insurance tech platform, is having a stellar 2025, up 120% and showing strong relative strength versus the iShares U.S. Insurance ETF, which is up just 7% over the same period. The stock has surged nearly 250% from its April lows, and on Nov. 6 posted its second-consecutive earnings-related gap higher of nearly 30%. Since April, it has largely respected the upward-sloping 21-day exponential moving average, cementing its status as a sector leader.
The stock cleared a former double-bottom breakout pivot at $38.72 on June 6 and is now forming a bull flag near the round $80 level. A decisive move above this level could pave the way toward the $100 mark by early 2026, with support holding above $72.
Lemonade was trading around $80 Tuesday.
Moelis, the investment bank and advisory firm, has had a mediocre 2025, down 6%. The stock is starting to show signs of life however, up 9% over the past month. While still 16% below its 52-week high, momentum is building, and M&A activity could provide a meaningful tailwind.
Moelis has underperformed the iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF, but it recently recorded a bullish golden cross as the 21-day exponential moving average crossed above the 50-day simple moving average. The last time this occurred was in May, and the stock responded strongly. A long entry here, and an add-on above the double-bottom pivot at $73.09, targets a move toward $91 into mid-2026, with support holding above $66.
Moelis traded around $69 Tuesday.
Bank of Montreal, a Canadian bank with a 3.6% dividend yield, is up 36% year to date, nearly tripling the gain of the domestic Financial Select SPDR Fund. The stock posted an impressive 22 of 25-week win streak from early April through September, then digested a six of eight week pullback, giving back very little of its 54% advance.
Technically, the stock registered a bullish golden cross this week. The last time this happened was in April, and the stock performed well. An entry here makes sense after Thursday's breakout above the cup base pivot at $131.46, targeting a move toward $145 in early 2026. Remain bullish above $127.
BMO was trading around $132 Tuesday.
As the old saying goes, "there's no real bull market without the financials." If that holds true, this rally has the footing to carry well into 2026.
Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 16, 2025 10:54 ET (15:54 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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