Valley National (VLY): Revisiting Valuation After a Strong Recent Share Price Rally

Simply Wall St.12-16

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) has quietly outperformed many regional peers, with shares up about 10% over the past month and 11% in the past 3 months, catching the attention of value focused investors...

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See our latest analysis for Valley National Bancorp. Zooming out, the recent rally sits on top of a much stronger backdrop, with a roughly one third year to date share price return and a solid mid twenty percent one year total shareholder return, suggesting momentum is building as investors reassess the bank’s earnings power and risk profile. If VLY’s steady climb has you thinking about what else the market might be re-rating, it could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With earnings growing faster than revenue, a double digit discount to analyst targets, and shares still trading below some estimates of intrinsic value, is Valley National Bancorp a clear value opportunity or is the market already baking in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 13.3% Undervalued Compared to Valley National Bancorp’s last close at $11.92, the most followed narrative sees room for upside, anchored by a higher fair value estimate.  Analysts have modestly raised their fair value estimate for Valley National Bancorp to $13.75 from $13.58, as they increasingly expect lower cost deposit growth, improving net interest margins, and a visible path to faster earnings growth and higher returns on tangible common equity.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see how deposit mix, margin rebuild, and ambitious profit targets all fit together into one valuation story? The narrative lays out the full playbook, including the growth runway, profitability reset, and future earnings multiple that underpin this upgraded fair value. Curious which assumptions drive that upside gap? Result: Fair Value of $13.75 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, concentrated exposure to commercial real estate and intense competition for low cost deposits could quickly challenge expectations for sustained margin expansion and higher returns. Find out about the key risks to this Valley National Bancorp narrative.  Build Your Own Valley National Bancorp Narrative If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in minutes, Do it your way. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Valley National Bancorp. Looking for your next investing edge? Do not stop at one opportunity when you can quickly scan fresh ideas across sectors, spot emerging leaders, and position your portfolio ahead of the crowd.  Target future heavyweights early by scanning these 3612 penny stocks with strong financials with strong balance sheets, resilient earnings, and room to scale before the wider market catches on. Ride the AI wave with conviction by focusing on these 26 AI penny stocks that pair real revenue momentum with transformative technology, not just hype. Identify potential bargains by tracking these 908 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where current prices reflect long term cash flow potential and improving fundamentals.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Mobile Infrastructure for Defense and DisasterThe next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.Get the investor briefing before the next round of contractsSponsored On Behalf of CiTechNew: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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