Has Xiaomi’s 291% Three Year Surge Left Much Upside for 2025?

Simply Wall St.12-14

If you are wondering whether Xiaomi is still a smart buy after its big run, or if the easy money has already been made, you are not alone. This breakdown is here to tackle exactly that question. The ...

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This breakdown is here to tackle exactly that question. The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/tech/hkg-1810/xiaomi-shares/news/has-xiaomis-291-three-year-surge-left-much-upside-for-2025\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0823413660.USD","symbol_name":"BNP PARIBAS EMERGING EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/tech/hkg-1810/xiaomi-shares/news/has-xiaomis-291-three-year-surge-left-much-upside-for-2025","article_id":"2591500666","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/9621091-choice2-main-header/1585186855318"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/tech/hkg-1810/xiaomi-shares/news/has-xiaomis-291-three-year-surge-left-much-upside-for-2025","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2591500666","pubTimestamp":1765679971,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether Xiaomi is still a smart buy after its big run, or if the easy money has already been made, you are not alone. 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However, the last 30 days saw a modest 1.2% pullback after a flat 0.4% move this past week.\nRecent moves have been shaped by optimism around Xiaomi's push deeper into premium smartphones and...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","LU0823413660.USD":"BNP PARIBAS EMERGING EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC","BK1502":"双十一","HXXD.SI":"Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc SGD","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","LU0348827113.USD":"ALLIANZ RCM CHINA \"AT\" ACC","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1981816686.USD":"EASTSPRING INV ASIAN MULTI FACTOR EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0499858602.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","BK1193":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0054450605.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKTS EQ \"AD\" INC","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","LU1251922891.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","LU0650527681.SGD":"Fidelity China Consumer A-SGD","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU0449509016.USD":"HSBC GIF BRIC EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU1770036033.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1808992512.USD":"AB ALL CHINA EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0797268264.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0210526637.USD":"JPM CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0605514214.HKD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0634319403.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0700851271.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS MULTI-ASSET \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0823413587.USD":"BNP PARIBAS EMERGING EQUITY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0594300179.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1961090484.USD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK1575":"同股不同权","01810":"小米集团-W","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK1607":"新IT概念","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0918141705.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU1813983027.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","XIACY":"小米集团ADR","LU0823039010.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS ASIA EQUITY FOCUS  \"A2\" (USD) INC"},"translate_title":"小米三年291%的飙升是否为2025年留下了很大的上涨空间？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"01810":0.9,"MIUmain":0.6,"DCF":1,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"XIACY":0.6},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Xiaomi is still a smart buy after its big run, or if the easy money has already been made, you are not alone. This breakdown is here to tackle exactly that question. The stock is up 26.4% year to date and 37.0% over the last year, with a 291.3% gain over three years. However, the last 30 days saw a modest 1.2% pullback after a flat 0.4% move this past week. Recent moves have been shaped by optimism around Xiaomi's push deeper into premium smartphones and ecosystem hardware, alongside growing investor interest in its longer term Internet of Things and services strategy. At the same time, shifting sentiment on Chinese tech regulation and global supply chains has kept volatility elevated and made the market more sensitive to headlines. Despite that excitement, Xiaomi only scores a 1/6 valuation check. This suggests the market might already be pricing in a lot of good news. Next, we will unpack how different valuation methods view the stock, and later on return to a more nuanced way of thinking about what Xiaomi is really worth.  Xiaomi scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. Approach 1: Xiaomi Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis The Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth today by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those amounts back into today’s money. For Xiaomi, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about CN¥43.5 billion. Analysts provide detailed forecasts for the next few years, and after that Simply Wall St extrapolates longer term trends. Under this two stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, Xiaomi’s cash flows are expected to rise steadily, reaching roughly CN¥71.6 billion by 2029 and remaining in that ballpark through 2035 as growth gradually slows. When these future cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of around HK$45.77 per share. That implies the stock trades at about a 6.1% discount to its estimated fair value, which is a relatively small margin of safety but still leans positive. In plain terms, the DCF suggests Xiaomi is priced pretty close to what its long term cash generation appears to justify. Result: ABOUT RIGHT Xiaomi is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act. 1810 Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Xiaomi. Approach 2: Xiaomi Price vs Earnings For profitable companies like Xiaomi, the price to earnings ratio is a useful way to judge valuation because it directly links what investors pay today to the profits the business is already generating. A higher PE can be justified when earnings are expected to grow quickly or when the business is seen as lower risk. Slower growth or higher uncertainty typically call for a lower, more conservative multiple. Xiaomi currently trades on about 22.9x earnings, slightly above the broader Tech industry average of roughly 22.7x and well above the peer group average near 17.1x. On the surface, that suggests the market is willing to pay a premium for Xiaomi compared to many rivals. However, Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio for Xiaomi is 20.5x, which adjusts the multiple you would expect to pay after accounting for its specific earnings growth outlook, profitability, industry positioning, size and risk profile. This tailored Fair Ratio is more informative than simple peer or industry comparisons because it captures Xiaomi’s individual strengths and risk factors rather than assuming all tech stocks deserve the same multiple. With the current 22.9x PE sitting modestly above the 20.5x Fair Ratio, the stock screens as somewhat expensive on this measure. Result: OVERVALUED SEHK:1810 PE Ratio as at Dec 2025 PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1443 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Xiaomi Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. Simply Wall St hosts these on the Xiaomi Community page, and millions of investors already use them as an easy way to connect a company’s story to its numbers. A Narrative is your own clear view of where a business is heading, expressed as a short story about its competitive advantages, risks and catalysts, and then translated into concrete forecasts for future revenue, earnings, margins and a resulting fair value estimate. In practice, a Narrative links three pieces together: what you believe Xiaomi’s business will look like, what that implies for a financial forecast, and what that forecast suggests is a reasonable fair value per share. Because Simply Wall St continuously refreshes Narratives when new information such as earnings, guidance or major news is released, your Xiaomi view, and therefore your fair value, stays dynamic instead of being a once-a-year exercise. For example, one Xiaomi Narrative on the platform might assume a fair value of about HK$51.80, while a more optimistic one might point to roughly HK$58.00. Comparing each Narrative’s fair value to the current market price gives its author a clear, numbers-backed signal on whether they think Xiaomi is a buy, hold or sell today. Do you think there's more to the story for Xiaomi? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! SEHK:1810 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Mobile Infrastructure for Defense and DisasterThe next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.Get the investor briefing before the next round of contractsSponsored On Behalf of CiTechNew: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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