The Energy Information Administration said on Monday it now expects U.S. households to pay more for heating fuel this winter compared with its previous forecast in October due to expected lower average U.S. temperatures.
The agency said in a note that its current estimates for residential energy expenditures have increased since it published its Winter Fuels Outlook in mid-October, citing a colder winter and rising retail heating costs especially for natural gas and propane.
EIA's winter fuel expense forecast covers a five-month period from November to March.
The agency said its weather assumptions are partially based on the latest forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which now expects this December will be about 8% colder than the average of the previous 10 Decembers.
A powerful snowstorm swept across the Upper Midwest to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this past weekend before ushering in an intense wave of frigid temperatures covering a large swath of the U.S.
EIA said it now expects an average household to pay more for retail natural gas this winter compared with the last one. It said the spot price of natural gas at Henry Hub was near $3/MMBtu in October, but that price had increased to more than $4/MMBtu by late November.
In addition, the agency also increased its propane and heating oil forecasts compared with its initial estimates in October.
EIA typically provides three forecasts -- in October, November and December -- with different weather assumptions due to changing weather outlook. Retail energy prices, especially for propane and heating oil, are sensitive to weather-related effects on energy demand, supply, and wholesale prices, it says.
EIA offers forecasts for energy consumption, prices and expenditures for natural gas, electricity, propane and heating oil because almost all U.S. homes use one of these four fuels as their main heating source.
This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
-Reporting by Frank Tang, ftang@opisnet.com; Editing by Michael Kelly, mkelly@opisnet.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 15, 2025 11:44 ET (16:44 GMT)
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