Does Earnings Beat And Rising Payouts Change The Bull Case For MGIC Investment (MTG)?

Simply Wall St.12-15

Earlier this year, MGIC Investment reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share of US$0.83, topping analyst expectations of US$0.74, while also continuing its program of aggressive share repurchases...

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This combination of earnings outperformance and steadily rising capital returns points to management’s confidence in MGIC’s underlying mortgage insurance franchise and its ability to keep rewarding shareholders over time. Next, we’ll examine how this earnings beat and ongoing shareholder returns program could reshape MGIC Investment’s existing investment narrative. This technology could replace computers: discover 27 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality.MGIC Investment Investment Narrative RecapTo own MGIC Investment, you need to believe its mortgage insurance franchise can stay resilient even if new policy growth remains muted and housing activity softens. The recent Q3 2025 earnings beat and new 52 week high support the near term catalyst of strong profitability and capital returns, but they do not materially change the key risk around flat insurance in force and constrained new originations. The most relevant recent announcement here is MGIC’s ongoing share repurchase activity, which has retired more than 3% of shares in the latest tranche alone. That buyback, paired with seven straight years of dividend increases, reinforces how much of the current story hinges on returning excess capital while core business growth remains limited, and raises questions about how sustainable these high payout levels might be if housing or credit trends turn. Yet behind these record highs and rising dividends, one issue investors should be aware of is... Read the full narrative on MGIC Investment (it's free!)MGIC Investment's narrative projects $1.3 billion revenue and $633.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 2.8% yearly revenue growth and an earnings decrease of $129.1 million from $762.6 million today.Uncover how MGIC Investment's forecasts yield a $27.67 fair value, a 5% downside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesMTG 1-Year Stock Price Chart Simply Wall St Community members’ fair value estimates for MGIC range from US$27.67 to US$62.57 across 3 inputs, underlining how far opinions can spread. Set these against the risk of persistently flat insurance in force and constrained originations, and you get very different conclusions about how much current earnings power can support MGIC’s long term performance.Explore 3 other fair value estimates on MGIC Investment - why the stock might be worth just $27.67!Build Your Own MGIC Investment NarrativeDisagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your MGIC Investment research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.Our free MGIC Investment research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate MGIC Investment's overall financial health at a glance.Interested In Other Possibilities?Right now could be the best entry point. These picks are fresh from our daily scans. Don't delay:AI is about to change healthcare. These 30 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.Trump's oil boom is here - pipelines are primed to profit. Discover the 22 US stocks riding the wave.Outshine the giants: these 26 early-stage AI stocks could fund your retirement.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Mobile Infrastructure for Defense and DisasterThe next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.Get the investor briefing before the next round of contractsSponsored On Behalf of CiTechNew: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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