Green Brick Partners (GRBK): Revisiting Valuation After a Strong Multi‑Year Share Price Run

Simply Wall St.12-19

Recent performance puts Green Brick Partners in focus Green Brick Partners (GRBK) has quietly outperformed many peers this year, with the stock up about 18% year to date and roughly 15% over the past ...

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See our latest analysis for Green Brick Partners. At a share price of $65.44, Green Brick’s recent pullback follows a strong upswing, with year to date share price returns still firmly positive and a standout three year total shareholder return suggesting momentum is cooling rather than breaking. If Green Brick’s run has you thinking about what else could surprise to the upside, this might be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. Yet with revenue growth slowing, earnings dipping, and shares now hovering slightly above analyst targets, investors face a key question: Is Green Brick still undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 5.5% Overvalued With Green Brick Partners trading at $65.44 against a narrative fair value of $62.00, expectations rest on future profitability holding up in a tougher housing backdrop.  Analysts expect earnings to reach $252.1 million (and earnings per share of $5.06) by about September 2028, down from $347.1 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how a shrinking profit pool can still justify a richer earnings multiple than today? Want to see the revenue, margin, and discount rate assumptions behind that call? Result: Fair Value of $62 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, record closings in high growth Texas and Atlanta markets, along with industry leading gross margins, could underpin stronger earnings and challenge that cautious valuation. Find out about the key risks to this Green Brick Partners narrative.  Build Your Own Green Brick Partners Narrative If you see things differently, or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalised view in just minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your Green Brick Partners research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? Take the next step now and use the Simply Wall St Screener to explore potential opportunities that others may be overlooking.  Explore these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% to research dividend-paying companies that may help support portfolio income when markets become volatile. Use these 24 AI penny stocks to research companies involved in AI technologies that may influence multiple industries over time. Use these 916 undervalued stocks based on cash flows to identify companies where current cash flows may differ from what is reflected in their share price.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.The New Payments ETF Is Live on NASDAQ:Money is moving to real-time rails, and a newly listed ETF now gives investors direct exposure. Fast settlement. Institutional custody. Simple access.Explore how this launch could reshape portfoliosSponsored ContentNew: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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