By Omar Abdel-Baqui
The heavy U.S. strikes against Islamic State positions highlight the difficulty in fully suppressing a foe that was declared militarily defeated half a decade ago.
U.S. forces carried out attacks on more than 70 targets in Syria on Friday, as the Trump administration retaliated for an ambush that killed three Americans last week. Jordanian forces joined in the strikes, which targeted Islamic State infrastructure and weapons sites.
The wide-scale attack followed more than 80 operations the U.S. military says it has conducted along with its Kurdish-led militia partners in Syria in the last six months, including airstrikes as well as raids that have killed Islamic State leaders.
Despite extensive targeting of the group following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria a year ago, its cells continue to carry out ambushes and increased the pace of their attacks early this year.
The U.S. strikes were mostly symbolic, said Sam Heller, a Beirut-based security analyst with Century International, a policy institute.
"It seems mostly geared toward retribution than anything that might really impact ISIS as it presently is," he said, referring to Islamic State by a commonly used acronym.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called the attacks an act of revenge.
Islamic State, which once terrorized populations in the substantial swath of territory it controlled in Iraq and Syria, has been operating mostly in the shadows since a U.S.-led coalition conquered the last territory it held in its self-declared caliphate in 2019.
It maintains loosely organized sleeper cells in the central hinterlands of the country, launching ambushes targeting commanders in the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces militia that is working with the U.S.
Islamic State militants staged 117 attacks in northeast Syria through the end of August, far outpacing the 73 attacks in all of 2024, according to SDF figures.
In its still-battered condition, Islamic State isn't likely to escalate its attacks against the U.S. to avenge the strikes.
"I highly doubt that ISIS is in a position to step operations up," Heller said. "They are operating under years of sustained pressure."
A greater risk is that the group steps up attacks against Syrian troops. The U.S.-designated terrorist organization and its sympathizers could also use networks it established in Syria's population centers in western Syria following the fall of the Assad regime to carry out attacks, Heller said.
Islamic State also has increasingly gained the attention of Western powers for inspiring high-profile attacks conducted by people who are affiliated with the group or influenced by its ideology.
Last week, President Trump blamed Islamic State after a member of Syria's security forces killed two American national guardsmen and an interpreter at a meeting where Syrian and U.S. security services discussed combating the militant group.
Syria said the gunman was an extremist who was about to be dismissed from its security forces. He was killed in last week's attack.
"This operation is critical to preventing ISIS from inspiring terrorist plots and attacks against the U.S. homeland," Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, said of Friday's strikes.
Beyond Syria, Islamic State retains strongholds in parts of Africa and Asia. Australian authorities said it inspired the recent attack on a Hanukkah celebration this month in Sydney's Bondi Beach.
Authorities there said father and son Sajid and Naveed Akram killed 15 people and wounded dozens attending the beachside celebrations. The attackers had homemade Islamic State flags in their car, police said.
Authorities are investigating a trip both men took last month to an island in the Philippines where local insurgents have previously sworn allegiance to Islamic State. The group didn't claim the Bondi attack but praised it and suggested the perpetrators had been inspired by the group's ideology.
The U.S. calculation in confronting Islamic State cells is complex. It wants to prevent a resurgence of the group and hopes to see Syria stabilized under its new government. But it also is wary of commitments that could draw it into another Middle East war.
The leaders of Syria's new government, which signed onto the global coalition against Islamic State and has worked with the U.S. on combating Islamic State, have past ties to the group. President Ahmed al-Sharaa was a former member of the jihadist insurgency against American forces in Iraq. He broke ties with al Qaeda in 2016 and later fought against Isis.
But extremist elements remain within the ranks of Syria's security forces. In addition to the man who attacked the American servicemembers, gunmen affiliated with groups friendly to Syria's government have been accused of committing atrocities against minorities.
Some of the recent incidents "highlight the difficulties the Americans will now face in distinguishing meaningfully between forces of the new Syrian government and ISIS," Heller said.
Write to Omar Abdel-Baqui at omar.abdel-baqui@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 20, 2025 08:01 ET (13:01 GMT)
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