FACTBOX-Most global brokerages expect two more Fed rate cuts in 2026

Reuters12-19

FACTBOX-Most global brokerages expect two more Fed rate cuts in 2026

Dec 19 (Reuters) - Most top global brokerages are predicting two rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve totaling 50 basis points in 2026, but have varied expectations on the timings, given the central bank's caution for a pause in the near term.

Earlier this month, a sharply divided Fed trimmed policy rates by 25 basis points but hinted borrowing costs will stay put for now as it tries to gauge the health of the labor market, and seeks more data on inflation and economic performance.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026:

Brokerage	Total cuts in 2026	No. of cuts in 2026	Fed Funds Rate
J.P.Morgan	25 bps	in January	3.25-3.50%
Citigroup	75 bps	3 (in January March and September)	2.75-3.00%
Goldman Sachs	50 bps	2 (in March and June)	3-3.25%
Morgan Stanley	50 bps	2 (in January and April)	3-3.25%
BofA Global Research	50 bps	2 (in June and July)	3-3.25%
Wells Fargo	50 bps	2 (in March and June)	3-3.25%
Nomura	50 bps	2 (in June and September)	3-3.25%
Barclays	50 bps	2 (in March and June)	3-3.25%
Deutsche Bank	25 bps	1 (in September)	3.25-3.50%
HSBC	No rate cuts	-	3.50-3.75%
Standard Chartered	No rate cuts	-	3.50-3.75%
Macquarie	Rate hike	in Q4'26	-

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva)

((JoelJose@thomsonreuters.com;))

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now as it tries to gauge the health of the labor market, and seeks more data on inflation and economic performance.</p><p>Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026:  </p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>Brokerage</p></td><td><p>Total cuts in 2026</p></td><td><p>No. of cuts in 2026</p></td><td><p>Fed Funds Rate</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>J.P.Morgan</p></td><td><p>25 bps</p></td><td><p>in January</p></td><td><p>3.25-3.50%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Citigroup</p></td><td><p>75 bps</p></td><td><p>3 (in January March and September)</p></td><td><p>2.75-3.00%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Goldman Sachs</p></td><td><p>50 bps</p></td><td><p>2 (in March and June)</p></td><td><p>3-3.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSPQL\">Morgan Stanley</a></p></td><td><p>50 bps</p></td><td><p>2 (in January and April)</p></td><td><p>3-3.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>BofA Global Research </p></td><td><p>50 bps</p></td><td><p>2 (in June and July)</p></td><td><p>3-3.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EOD\">Wells Fargo</a></p></td><td><p>50 bps</p></td><td><p>2 (in March and June)</p></td><td><p>3-3.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Nomura</p></td><td><p>50 bps</p></td><td><p>2 (in June and September)</p></td><td><p>3-3.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Barclays</p></td><td><p>50 bps </p></td><td><p>2 (in March and June)</p></td><td><p>3-3.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Deutsche Bank</p></td><td><p>25 bps</p></td><td><p>1 (in September)</p></td><td><p>3.25-3.50%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a></p></td><td><p>No rate cuts </p></td><td><p>-</p></td><td><p>3.50-3.75%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Standard Chartered</p></td><td><p>No rate cuts </p></td><td><p>-</p></td><td><p>3.50-3.75%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQG.AU\">Macquarie</a> </p></td><td><p>Rate hike</p></td><td><p>in Q4'26</p></td><td><p>-</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p> (Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil 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class=\"title\">\nFACTBOX-Most global brokerages expect two more Fed rate cuts in 2026\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1032215980\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-19 21:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\"><head><title>FACTBOX-Most global brokerages expect two more Fed rate cuts in 2026</title></head><body><p><span>Dec 19 (Reuters)</span><span> - </span><span>Most top global brokerages are predicting two rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve totaling 50 basis points in 2026, but have varied expectations on the timings, given the central bank's caution for a pause in the near term.</span></p><p>Earlier this month, a sharply divided Fed trimmed policy rates by 25 basis points but hinted borrowing costs will stay put for now as it tries to gauge the health of the labor market, and seeks more data on inflation and economic performance.</p><p>Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026:  </p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>Brokerage</p></td><td><p>Total cuts in 2026</p></td><td><p>No. of cuts in 2026</p></td><td><p>Fed Funds Rate</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>J.P.Morgan</p></td><td><p>25 bps</p></td><td><p>in January</p></td><td><p>3.25-3.50%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Citigroup</p></td><td><p>75 bps</p></td><td><p>3 (in January March and September)</p></td><td><p>2.75-3.00%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Goldman Sachs</p></td><td><p>50 bps</p></td><td><p>2 (in March and June)</p></td><td><p>3-3.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSPQL\">Morgan Stanley</a></p></td><td><p>50 bps</p></td><td><p>2 (in January and April)</p></td><td><p>3-3.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>BofA Global Research </p></td><td><p>50 bps</p></td><td><p>2 (in June and July)</p></td><td><p>3-3.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EOD\">Wells Fargo</a></p></td><td><p>50 bps</p></td><td><p>2 (in March and June)</p></td><td><p>3-3.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Nomura</p></td><td><p>50 bps</p></td><td><p>2 (in June and September)</p></td><td><p>3-3.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Barclays</p></td><td><p>50 bps </p></td><td><p>2 (in March and June)</p></td><td><p>3-3.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Deutsche Bank</p></td><td><p>25 bps</p></td><td><p>1 (in September)</p></td><td><p>3.25-3.50%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a></p></td><td><p>No rate cuts </p></td><td><p>-</p></td><td><p>3.50-3.75%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Standard Chartered</p></td><td><p>No rate cuts </p></td><td><p>-</p></td><td><p>3.50-3.75%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQG.AU\">Macquarie</a> </p></td><td><p>Rate hike</p></td><td><p>in Q4'26</p></td><td><p>-</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p> (Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva)</p><p> ((JoelJose@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0787776722.HKD","symbol_name":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://api.refinitiv.com/data/news/v1/stories/urn:newsml:reuters.com:20251219:nL4N3XG141:1","article_id":"2592167056","we_media_id":"1032215980","thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592167056","pubTimestamp":1766152630,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"Reuters","introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and 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bps2 3-3.25%Barclays50 bps 2 3-3.25%Deutsche Bank25 bps1 3.25-3.50%HSBCNo rate cuts -3.50-3.75%Standard CharteredNo rate cuts -3.50-3.75%Macquarie R","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1078025761.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EUROPEAN EQUITY \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1035777561.USD":"AB SICAV I - EUROPEAN EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) 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the near term.Earlier this month, a sharply divided Fed trimmed policy rates by 25 basis points but hinted borrowing costs will stay put for now as it tries to gauge the health of the labor market, and seeks more data on inflation and economic performance.Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026:  BrokerageTotal cuts in 2026No. of cuts in 2026Fed Funds RateJ.P.Morgan25 bpsin January3.25-3.50%Citigroup75 bps3 (in January March and September)2.75-3.00%Goldman Sachs50 bps2 (in March and June)3-3.25%Morgan Stanley50 bps2 (in January and April)3-3.25%BofA Global Research 50 bps2 (in June and July)3-3.25%Wells Fargo50 bps2 (in March and June)3-3.25%Nomura50 bps2 (in June and September)3-3.25%Barclays50 bps 2 (in March and June)3-3.25%Deutsche Bank25 bps1 (in September)3.25-3.50%HSBCNo rate cuts -3.50-3.75%Standard CharteredNo rate cuts -3.50-3.75%Macquarie Rate hikein Q4'26- (Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva) 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