Firefly Aerospace Needs to Scale Ops to Drive Profitability, Free Cash Flow, KeyBanc Says

MT Newswires Live12-20

Firefly Aerospace (FLY) has demonstrated early wins in its spacecraft business but needs to scale operations to achieve profitability, generate significant free cash flow, and offset high upfront investment, KeyBanc Capital Markets said in a Thursday note.

KeyBanc said the company's Blue Ghost lunar lander is contracted under NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services or CLPS program over four years, with an estimated total revenue of about $470 million, though revenue recognition is "back-end loaded."

NASA plans to complete two CLPS landings per year and it has awarded task orders to five different companies, but the program's further expansion remains unclear, the investment firm noted. A newer lunar lander program also faces main risks related to costs, delays, and execution, KeyBanc added.

KeyBanc also noted the company's Eclipse medium-lift launch vehicle, which is targeted for launch as early as 2026 and is expected to increase the company's total addressable market.

KeyBanc initiated coverage on Firefly Aerospace with a sector weight rating.

Shares of Firefly Aerospace were up 18% in recent Friday trading.

Price: 23.77, Change: +3.70, Percent Change: +18.44

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