Sometimes something happens that causes academics, traders, and Wall Street veterans to question the market's ability to allocate capital and price assets efficiently.
Yes, we are talking about the merger between social-media platform Trump Media & Technology and nuclear fusion start-up TAE Technologies.
The deal values TAE at some $3 billion, creating the world's first publicly traded nuclear fusion company, which produces energy the way a star does. (Exciting.) What Trump Media brings to the table is "access to capital," according to a news release.
Trump Media stock rose 8.3% on Friday, after a 42% jump on Thursday, closing the week at $16.09, which left shares down 53% for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 added 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively.
"Trump Media & Technology Group built uncancelable infrastructure to secure free expression online for Americans, and now we're taking a big step forward toward a revolutionary technology that will cement America's global energy dominance for generations," said Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes.
It's going from social media and crypto into nuclear physics. It reminds Barron's of Kodak's pivot to generic drug manufacturing in 2020. The one-time leader in film technology decided to leverage its expertise in handling chemicals to become a healthcare provider.
It didn't work. Shares peaked at $60 in July 2020, after a flurry of excitement related to a government loan to kick-start drug production. Kodak shares closed at $8.06 on Thursday. Its largest business is commercial printing, but it is still pursuing pharmaceutical manufacturing.
DJT doesn't have to become Kodak. TAE might change the world with low-cost power from a mini-sun. And the media executives at DJT could be just the people to make it happen.
Wall Street won't be much help, for now. No one covers DJT stock, according to FactSet. TAE is privately held. A few analysts have opined on fusion, though.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives weighed in, saying, "The key task at hand for TAE is to help solve energy scarcity and now focus on building the world's first utility-scale fusion power plant." That isn't really an endorsement of the deal. Everyone wants energy scarcity solved.
Cannacord analyst George Gianarikas asked in a Thursday report, "Are the stars coming to earth? Has fusion's moment arrived?" His report also wasn't exactly an endorsement of the deal. Mainly, he explained to his clients what fusion is -- Smashing atoms together to make a new element, which releases energy, like stars.
The goal of TAE is to have a 50-megawatt electric plant under construction in 2026 with fusion power by 2031.
Things could all work out, but the odds of it happening as planned are small. More likely is that Thursday's gains eventually fade, timelines for fusion technology get stretched out, costs rise, profits prove elusive, and capital gets harder to raise down the road.
But before that happens, Wall Street will likely start to cover the merged company, focusing on the fusion business. There will be some favorable ratings. Financial models are surprisingly easy to build without hard inputs or history.
Tesla's nascent robot business, for instance, has been valued by some at north of 20 times estimated 2035 sales
Investors can think of this merger as a little like a SPAC transaction, where a publicly traded shell merges with a private company that investors want to own. DJT is the shell, and TAE is the company investors will be interested in. EV makers Nikola and Lucid are two examples of that kind of deal. Both of those stocks worked for a while before falling precipitously.
In the long term, the stock market is efficient. In the short run, anything can happen -- and usually does. Barron's will gladly admit an error if the merger is a success, bringing clean, abundant power to the world.
Just tread carefully while the process unfolds.
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