By Andy Serwer
The year end affords us an opportunity to step back and assess the past and wonder about the days ahead. As a somewhat arbitrary demarcation, ringing in a new year sometimes lacks drama -- though not this year. Heading into 2026, we will be witnessing a changing of the guard at what are arguably America's three most important companies. (Not you, OpenAI.) I'm referring to leadership changes at Walmart, Berkshire Hathaway, and Apple.
The moves at these companies aren't symmetric. Each is embarking on a distinct changeover path, but the common denominator of resetting is unmistakable and momentous. On Feb. 1, Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart since Feb. 1, 2014, will be handing the reins to John Furner, president and CEO of Walmart U.S. (They have succession down to the day at Walmart!) Meanwhile, Warren Buffett, who has been running Berkshire Hathaway forever (actually only since 1965 -- slightly shorter than forever) will be turning over his responsibilities to Greg Abel, currently vice chairman of noninsurance operations, on New Year's Day.
As for Apple's Tim Cook, who has been CEO since Aug. 24, 2011, he isn't going anywhere -- yet. But with the announced departure of some key Cook deputies -- Chief Operating Officer Jeff Williams, general counsel Kate Adams, and head of government affairs Lisa Jackson, part of a continuum in a multiyear switching out of 60-plus-year-old top executives, or as an insider calls it, "maintaining the magic" -- the 14 1/2 -year Cook era at Apple looks to be winding down.
Quibble with me if you like, but I'd argue that under the leadership of McMillon, Buffett, and Cook, these three companies have redefined how to do chicken right. They are models of efficiency, supply chain, profitability, and talent nurturing. All three have outperformed the market during their CEO tenures.
There are a few connections among them, especially Berkshire's home-run investment in Apple, probably Buffett's best stock investment ever in dollar terms, generating some $100 billion in pretax profits and with tens of billions more still held in a roughly $35 billion investment. This is the case, even though one could argue that Berkshire sold much of its Apple stock too soon, missing a strong recent run-up.
Speaking of missing an opportunity, Buffett once owned Walmart but sold his stake beginning in 2015, in the early days of McMillon's tenure. This is ironic since Buffett has chastised himself for missing Walmart early on. Make that later on, too, Warren. Even Oracles can't be perfect, as Buffett so often tells us.
As for Walmart and Apple, yes, the former sells Apple products, but that distribution channel is small potatoes compared with Apple's own digital and physical stores and mobile carriers. Also note that Walmart is one of few national retailers that doesn't accept Apple Pay; it wants its customers to use Walmart Pay.
Now let's take a look at some numbers. Simply put, these three CEOs have been wealth-creation beasts. And it isn't just Buffett, who's actually not No. 1 by a long shot. That honor goes to Tim Cook, who, when he became CEO, presided over a company with a mere $350 billion in market capitalization. Today, it's $4.1 trillion -- or some $3.75 billion more. Yes, you can argue that much of this was selling products that Steve Jobs developed, but talk about taking an operation to a whole other level. As for Buffett, Berkshire is worth some $1.1 trillion today, which is, of course, all Warren. Now consider Walmart. When McMillion became CEO, Walmart's market cap was $242 billion, compared with $920 billion today, or almost 3.8 times bigger. In total, the three CEOs have generated some $5.5 trillion of value.
As for the prognosis for these companies, note that at each of these well-oiled machines, succession is considered mission critical. Walmart is so good at this that Wall Street just assumes Furner will succeed -- though you never really know. As for Buffett, there is some anxiety, as to be expected, over how able Abel will be. Again, who knows, but remember, this is really Buffett's biggest call ever.
Picking a new CEO is "the most important decision that you make," Buffett said to me five years ago. "It isn't what their IQ is. And it isn't even necessarily the top [person] in a given type of managerial skill, if they're the kind that will leave you tomorrow. You really want somebody that is devoted to Berkshire."
For Cook, who turned 65 on Nov. 1, there's still time. The betting for now is that John Ternus, 50, senior vice president of hardware engineering, will ultimately lead Apple. "We believe Cook is a hall-of-fame CEO, and he will be CEO for at least the next two years," says the ever-colorfully attired Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities. Ives says that Cook will want to see through implementation of Apple's artificial-intelligence strategy.
It's also worth noting that Ternus, Abel, and Furner have been at their companies 25, 27, and 33 years, respectively. Talk about vetting.
Should you sell your Apple, Walmart, or Berkshire stock? Recall that some suggested as much when Tim Cook took over at Apple. Had you done that with, say, a $100,000 stake and invested it in the S&P 500 index instead, you would be looking at $1.4 million-plus opportunity loss. (Your Apple stock would be worth $2,040,270 today; your S&P 500 investment only $578,850.)
To paraphrase Coach Nick Saban: When it comes to these three American icons, it probably pays to trust the process.
Write to Andy Serwer at andy.serwer@barrons.com. Follow him on X and subscribe to his At Barron's podcast.
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 18, 2025 01:00 ET (06:00 GMT)
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