BOC Aviation (SEHK:2588): Valuation Check After New Airbus A350-1000 Lease Deal with Philippine Airlines

Simply Wall St.2025-12-18

BOC Aviation (SEHK:2588) just struck a fresh deal to buy two Airbus A350-1000s and lease them back to Philippine Airlines, a classic sale and leaseback that quietly extends its long term revenue ...

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See our latest analysis for BOC Aviation. The market seems to be rewarding this steady pipeline of long term leases, with the share price at HK$74.0 and a robust year to date share price return of 26.71 percent, while the 5 year total shareholder return of 43.10 percent points to durable, if measured, compounding momentum. If this kind of steady aviation exposure appeals, it could be worth widening the lens and exploring aerospace and defense stocks as another way to uncover transport linked opportunities. Yet with shares already up strongly this year and trading below, but not far from, analyst targets, the real question now is whether BOC Aviation is still mispriced value or if the market is already discounting its next leg of growth. Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 12.9% Undervalued With the narrative fair value sitting meaningfully above the last close at HK$74.0, the focus shifts to whether long term cash generation can close that gap.  Ongoing fleet modernization, with a record orderbook heavily weighted to new, fuel efficient aircraft, positions BOC Aviation to benefit from replacement cycles and environmental compliance trends, supporting higher lease rates and improving net margins.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how steady, rather than explosive, revenue growth and moderating margins can still justify a richer earnings multiple than the wider sector? The full narrative unpacks the cash flow path, the assumed profitability reset, and the valuation bridge that turns those forecasts into a higher present day fair value. Result: Fair Value of $85.00 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, a prolonged high rate environment or a sharper than expected air travel slowdown could pressure refinancing costs, utilization, and the optimistic earnings trajectory. Find out about the key risks to this BOC Aviation narrative.  Build Your Own BOC Aviation Narrative If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a personalized narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your BOC Aviation research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for your next smart move? Now is the moment to sharpen your edge. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to uncover fresh opportunities before the crowd catches on.  Capture mispriced potential by targeting these 915 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that strong cash flow analysis suggests the market is still overlooking. Ride structural shifts in healthcare by focusing on these 30 healthcare AI stocks turning medical data and automation into long term growth engines. Tap cutting edge innovation early by zeroing in on these 28 quantum computing stocks pushing the boundaries of computing power and future applications.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Mobile Infrastructure for Defense and DisasterThe next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.Get the investor briefing before the next round of contractsSponsored On Behalf of CiTechValuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if BOC Aviation might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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