Once the stuff of science fiction, quantum computing established itself in 2025 as a serious, if loss-making, corner of the stock market. Now Wall Street is paying attention.
In separate research notes, analysts at Jefferies and Wedbush Securities initiated coverage of the quantum computing sector, including IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum. The main message: Buy quantum.
Quantum computing uses the principles of quantum mechanics to process information in ways classical computation cannot. Believers say quantum computers could eventually speed up data-intensive processes like drug discovery and financial modeling.
The pure-play quantum companies make very little money today— IonQ led the trio with $43.1 million in revenue in 2024, while D-Wave brought up the rear with $8.8 million. They specialize in different types of technology, but the growth could be explosive for all three, says a team of analysts at Jefferies.
“In the current, early stage of quantum computing, ecosystem catalysts tend to lift sentiment and usage across architectures,” the group explained.
Jefferies and Wedbush both rate D-Wave the equivalent of Buy, with price targets of $45 and $35, respectively. The stock is up more than 200% this year at $25.52 as of Tuesday’s close.
D-Wave uses quantum annealing, a process that is already commercially mature and can solve problems like workforce scheduling and factory floor planning, Wedbush noted. It is also in strong financial shape to support growth, with more than $800 million in cash and around $32 million in debt entering 2026.
Jefferies forecasts D-Wave will post compounded annual revenue growth of 73% through 2030, led by its dominance in quantum annealing and continued adoption of quantum computing as a whole.
Greater adoption should support IonQ, too. Jefferies and Wedbush counseled investors to buy the stock—currently the largest player in the space—and issued price targets of $100 and $60, respectively. IonQ shares have climbed a relatively modest 19% this year to $49.67.
The company has partnerships with companies like Hyundai, Airbus, and AstraZeneca on the commercial side, plus a significant government footprint in national labs and the U.S. defense and energy agencies, Jefferies noted. It also has no debt.
“IonQ’s balance sheet provides substantial flexibility to fund multiyear R&D and commercialization,” the Jefferies team wrote. And these efforts will span not just computing, but also networking, sensing, and security.
The lone disagreement between Jefferies and Wedbush is about Rigetti. Wedbush rated the stock Outperform with a $35 price target, while Jefferies was at Hold with a $30 objective. Shares have already exploded, rising 57% this year and 124% over the last 12 months to $23.96.
While Rigetti has a rock-solid balance sheet and the same industrywide tailwinds as its competitors, its revenue remains dependent on government contracts, Jefferies argued. Almost 90% of 2024 revenue came from government entities, exposing the company to the choppiness and unpredictability of appropriations cycles.
Without more enterprise customers and sustained growth in revenue and backlog, “its business will likely rise and fall with government spending,” the Jefferies analysts wrote.
Wedbush was more upbeat. Rigetti recently announced $5.7 million in purchase orders for two of its quantum systems, which the firm said signals “commercial interest beyond pure R&D.” Rigetti declined to provide details about the orders, but they were implied to be nongovernment customers. Plus, the company has indicated it expects government revenue to rise in 2026, Wedbush added.
Quantum stocks are still in their commercial infancy and owned mostly by retail investors, so the ride to returns could be turbulent in the foreseeable future, Wedbush argued. But shareholders will tolerate the volatility if quantum adoption really does expand like analysts say it will.
Wedbush projects quantum computing at IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing —which it rates at Neutral—to comprise just under 2% of overall compute spending by 2030, from virtually zero today. That should mean big-time gains for shareholders.
Quantum computing, as the firm put it, is “a generational investment theme.”
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