Options Corner: How The Smart Money Could Be Quietly Loading Up On Twilio Stock

Benzinga_recent_news12-17

Ranking among the top cloud communications company, Twilio Inc (NYSE:TWLO) — which specializes in programmable tools across various mediums — truly saw its heyday during the COVID-19 crisis. Prior to ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2592937534?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2025/12/16/San-Jose--Ca--Usa---Nov-29--2023-Twilio-_0.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=120","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2025-12-17 04:38","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2592937534","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Options Corner: How The Smart Money Could Be Quietly Loading Up On Twilio Stock","media":"Benzinga_recent_news","content":"<div>\n<p>Ranking among the top cloud communications company, Twilio Inc (NYSE:TWLO) — which specializes in programmable tools across various mediums — truly saw its heyday during the COVID-19 crisis. Prior to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/12/49433850/twilio-twlo-stock-smart-money-loading-up-bullish-options-trade\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"benzinga_recent_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Options Corner: How The Smart Money Could Be Quietly Loading Up On Twilio Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOptions Corner: How The Smart Money Could Be Quietly Loading Up On Twilio Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-17 04:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/12/49433850/twilio-twlo-stock-smart-money-loading-up-bullish-options-trade><strong>Benzinga_recent_news</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Ranking among the top cloud communications company, Twilio Inc (NYSE:TWLO) — which specializes in programmable tools across various mediums — truly saw its heyday during the COVID-19 crisis. Prior to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/12/49433850/twilio-twlo-stock-smart-money-loading-up-bullish-options-trade\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4548","symbol_name":"巴美列捷福持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/12/49433850/twilio-twlo-stock-smart-money-loading-up-bullish-options-trade","article_id":"2592937534","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2025/12/16/San-Jose--Ca--Usa---Nov-29--2023-Twilio-_0.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=120"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/12/49433850/twilio-twlo-stock-smart-money-loading-up-bullish-options-trade","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592937534","pubTimestamp":1765917480,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"While Twilio has suffered a relevancy loss following COVID, the smart money could be quietly bidding up TWLO stock.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0205193047.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US SMALL & MID-CAP EQUITY \"A\" (USD)  ACC","BK4608":"AI应用概念股","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","TWLO":"Twilio Inc","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","LU0205194284.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US SMALL & MID-CAP EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC AV","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0012050646.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US SMALLER COMPANIES IMPACT \"A\" (USD) INC AV","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4613":"AI应用软件","LU0106261612.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US SMALLER COMPANIES IMPACT \"A\" ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4588":"碎股"},"translate_title":"期权角：聪明的资金如何悄悄买入Twilio股票","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TWLO":1.5},"content_text":"Ranking among the top cloud communications company, Twilio Inc (NYSE:TWLO) — which specializes in programmable tools across various mediums — truly saw its heyday during the COVID-19 crisis. Prior to the pandemic, modern tech users saw Twilio's platform as nice-to-have software. However, the rapid paradigm shift converted that interest into critical national infrastructure, thus leading to a positive repricing of TWLO stock.\nWith the pandemic fading into the background, however, several enterprises that benefited from the underlying demand surge collapsed. Twilio was one of them. From a peak share price of over $400, TWLO stock would eventually crash down to below $50 by December 2022. Ugly doesn't even begin to describe the fallout. However, a turnaround could be coming.\nObviously, it's difficult to say for sure how events will pan out. Certainly, recent insider selling doesn't add confidence to the bullish contrarian narrative. However, one blot doesn't cancel out the broader distribution of activity. In the past five sessions, TWLO stock gained 6%. In the trailing month, the security swung up more than 14%.\nToday? It was up above 4% in the early afternoon session. Something seems to be cooking — and it may not just be random noise.\nLooking at the weekly candlestick chart, TWLO stock in the trailing 10 weeks ending Monday printed only four up weeks. While today's close will bring the up week total to five, up to yesterday's close, TWLO did something unusual: despite the bears numerically beating out the bulls, the price action itself printed a net positive slope.\nWhile there could be many implications here, one of the more compelling could be stealth accumulation. If so, this may be a sign that the smart money is intentionally avoiding continuous bidding in an effort to keep prices contained while building exposure.\nIndeed, the quantitative backdrop makes the picture even more enticing.\nUnder traditional analytical frameworks, it's intuitive to view price or valuation chronologically. However, price isn't really a function of time but a function of state — and that state is effectively unknowable. It's not just future earnings or cash flow assumptions that go into the price. From institutional order flows down to emotional reflexivity, countless variables make up what we view as the current market price.\nAs such, chronological frameworks tend to distort our perception of true market dynamics because we immediately focus on the one-off events that cause conspicuous blips in price discovery. A more useful approach is to adopt a distributional framework. For example, by splitting a long, continuous strand of price data into multiple, discretized trials or sequences, we can reveal the structure of demand.\nHow so? If we took one 10-week trial, the return during this period doesn't tell us much about the performance of other weeks. However, if we stacked hundreds of 10-week trials in a distributional analysis, persistent behaviors will lead to certain price levels seeing higher activity — or more specifically probability density.\nIn the case of TWLO stock, its 10-week returns since January 2019 form a distributional curve, which ranges between $138 and $141 (assuming an anchor price of $138.25). Further, price clustering would likely be predominant at $138.80.\nHowever, we're interested in isolating for the current quantitative signal, which is the 4-6-U sequence; again, up to Monday's close, TWLO stock printed four up weeks and six down weeks, but with an overall upward slope.\nFollowing this setup, TWLO's 10-week returns tend to drift sharply higher, between $142.50 and $158. Moreover, price clustering would likely be predominant at around $148, though probability density would likely be quite thick between approximately $147 and $153.\nWhat's really fascinating is that from $150 to $155, probability density drops sharply, to the tune of 60.21%. As such, it makes sense to target the $150 strike price in an options trade.\nOut of all the stocks I've covered so far using the above quant methodology, I've never seen a security where the current-signal distribution is so far (positively) removed from the aggregate or baseline distribution. This dynamic presents great risk because this distribution could be caused by unique sentiment regimes that no longer apply today.\nAt the same time, there's great opportunity. If the sentiment regime is still valid, we're looking at serious upside here.\nUltimately, this idea is going to be a high-risk, high-reward wager. Still, if the empirical premise above were to still hold, the 145/150 bull call spread expiring Feb. 20, 2026 would arguably be the most sensible idea. This transaction involves buying the $145 call and simultaneously selling the $150 call, for a net debit paid of $225 (the most that can be lost).\nShould TWLO stock rise through the second-leg strike ($150) at expiration, the maximum profit would be $275, a payout of over 122%. Breakeven lands at $147.25.\nFor the ultimate speculator, the 145/150 bull spread expiring Jan. 16 would be the most tempting play. If TWLO stock can shoot to $150 under a compressed time period, you're looking at a payout of almost 250%.\nThe opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.\nRead Next:\nImage: Shutterstock","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2592937534","isCrawlerRequest":true}