Bitcoin's Death Cross Looks Scary Until You Realize What Happened Last Time

Benzinga_recent_news12-17 21:49

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has flashed another death cross, but historical data suggests the signal has more often appeared near market lows than the start of prolonged declines. The latest signal comes ...

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class=\"title\">\nBitcoin's Death Cross Looks Scary Until You Realize What Happened Last Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-17 21:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/12/49447424/bitcoins-death-cross-looks-scary-until-you-realize-what-happened-last-time><strong>Benzinga_recent_news</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has flashed another death cross, but historical data suggests the signal has more often appeared near market lows than the start of prolonged declines.\nThe latest signal comes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/12/49447424/bitcoins-death-cross-looks-scary-until-you-realize-what-happened-last-time\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4601","symbol_name":"加密货币现货ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/12/49447424/bitcoins-death-cross-looks-scary-until-you-realize-what-happened-last-time","article_id":"2592992913","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2025/12/17/Whats-Happening-With-MSTR-Currently-.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/12/49447424/bitcoins-death-cross-looks-scary-until-you-realize-what-happened-last-time","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592992913","pubTimestamp":1765979340,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has flashed another death cross, but historical data suggests the signal has more often appeared near market lows than the start","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"83042":"华夏比特币-R","BK4601":"加密货币现货ETF","BTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust","03439":"嘉实比特币","03008":"博时比特币","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念","BK1611":"加密货币现货ETF"},"translate_title":"比特币的死亡十字架看起来很可怕，直到你意识到上次发生了什么","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"83042":0.6,"03008":0.84,"BTC":1.99,"03439":0.84},"content_text":"Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has flashed another death cross, but historical data suggests the signal has more often appeared near market lows than the start of prolonged declines.\nThe latest signal comes from Bitcoin's 50-day moving average slipping below its 200-day moving average, a technical pattern widely labeled a \"death cross.\" \nThe setup has resurfaced at a time when price momentum has cooled and macro uncertainty remains elevated.\nMatthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, said he has been fielding growing concern from clients about the signal and responded by laying out historical context in a post on X.\nSigel reviewed every Bitcoin death cross dating back to 2011 and described the indicator as a lagging signal rather than a forward-looking warning. \nAccording to his analysis, the median return following a death cross has been positive more often than not.\nAcross all instances since 2011, Bitcoin's median return six months after a death cross was about 30%, while the 12-month median gain was roughly 89%, with positive outcomes occurring around 64% of the time.\nThe key distinction, Sigel noted, is the broader market regime. \nDeath crosses that appeared near cycle bottoms often marked periods when selling pressure had already peaked and price was stabilizing.\nExamples include 2011, 2015, 2020, and 2023, all of which were followed by strong recoveries. \nIn those cases, six-month returns ranged from +75% to +173%, and 12-month gains reached as high as +812% during the Covid bottom.\nIn contrast, in periods such as 2014, 2018, and 2022, the death cross showed up before selling was finished, with forced liquidations and balance-sheet stress still pushing prices lower.\nThe most recent historical comparison comes from 2024, which Sigel labeled the \"post-ETF regime.\" \nDuring that period, Bitcoin posted gains of about 58% over the next six months and roughly 94% over 12 months.\nThat environment differed from earlier cycles, with ETF-related demand and institutional flows playing a larger role in price formation. \nBTC Price Action By TradingView\nBitcoin has already absorbed the bulk of selling pressure, and the crossover is printing after a 30%+ drawdown, not ahead of one.\nBTC is trading below the 50-day and 200-day averages, but the distance between price and short-term averages is no longer widening, a common early signal of downside exhaustion.\nIf selling resumes, the next area where buyers are statistically likely to respond sits near $75,000 to $77,000, where prior demand and untested liquidity align. \nThe bias would only improve if Bitcoin breaks and holds above the descending trendline and reclaims the $92,000 to $95,000 region.\nRead Next: \nImage: Shutterstock","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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